London City Lionesses vs Aston Villa W Statistics & Analysis

London City Lionesses

May 16, 2026 - 12:00

2 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 80%

Aston Villa W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 London City Lionesses London City Lionesses ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 03:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1805128

Closing Odds 2.1

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result London City Lionesses win · London City Lionesses 2–1 Aston Villa W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Aston Villa W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 6.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
London City Lionesses (1X2)	41.8	44.2	-2.4
Draw (1X2)	25.7	25.1	+0.5
Aston Villa W (1X2)	32.6	30.7	+1.9
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	56.8	-6.2
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	43.2	+6.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 43.2%. The difference — about 6.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
London City Lionesses (1X2)	2.1	2.1
Draw (1X2)	3.69	3.69
Aston Villa W (1X2)	3.02	3.02
Over 2.5 goals	1.66	1.66
Under 2.5 goals	2.18	2.18

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: FA WSL
Fixture: London City Lionesses vs Aston Villa W
Kickoff: 2026-05-16 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): London City Lionesses 1.45 — Aston Villa W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 49.4% · Implied: 43.9% · Probability edge: +5.5 pts · Est. EV: +8.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

FA WSL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Manchester City W	22	18	1	3	55
2	Arsenal W	22	15	6	1	51
3	Chelsea W	22	15	4	3	49
4	Manchester United W	22	11	7	4	40
5	Tottenham Hotspur W	22	11	3	8	36
6	London City Lionesses	22	8	3	11	27
7	Brighton W	22	7	5	10	26
8	Everton W	22	7	2	13	23
9	Aston Villa W	22	5	5	12	20
10	West Ham W	22	5	4	13	19
11	Liverpool W	22	4	5	13	17
12	Leicester City WFC	22	2	3	17	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Manchester City W	22	62	19	+43	55
2	Arsenal W	22	53	14	+39	51
3	Chelsea W	22	44	20	+24	49
4	Manchester United W	22	38	22	+16	40
5	Tottenham Hotspur W	22	35	38	-3	36
6	London City Lionesses	22	28	35	-7	27
7	Aston Villa W	22	28	48	-20	20
8	Brighton W	22	27	28	-1	26
9	Everton W	22	25	37	-12	23
10	Liverpool W	22	21	34	-13	17
11	West Ham W	22	20	45	-25	19
12	Leicester City WFC	22	11	52	-41	9

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Arsenal W	22	1.2	0.2	+1.0	51
2	Everton W	22	0.2	1.2	-1.0	23
3	Manchester City W	22	—	—	—	55
4	Chelsea W	22	—	—	—	49
5	Manchester United W	22	—	—	—	40
6	Tottenham Hotspur W	22	—	—	—	36
7	London City Lionesses	22	—	—	—	27
8	Brighton W	22	—	—	—	26
9	Aston Villa W	22	—	—	—	20
10	West Ham W	22	—	—	—	19
11	Liverpool W	22	—	—	—	17
12	Leicester City WFC	22	—	—	—	9