Statistics / Football / England. FA WSL / Liverpool W vs Arsenal W

Liverpool W vs Arsenal W Statistics & Analysis

Liverpool W Liverpool W
May 16, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Arsenal W Arsenal W
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Liverpool W Arsenal W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-3 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 16:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1474047

Closing Odds 1.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Arsenal W win · Liverpool W 1–3 Arsenal W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Liverpool W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Liverpool W (1X2) by about 32.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Liverpool W (1X2) 41.8 9.3 +32.5
Draw (1X2) 25.7 16.4 +9.2
Arsenal W (1X2) 32.6 74.3 -41.7
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 56.8 -6.2
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 43.2 +6.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Liverpool W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 9.3%. The difference — about 32.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Liverpool W (1X2) 9.98 9.98 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.65 5.65 0.0
Arsenal W (1X2) 1.25 1.25 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.66 1.66 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.18 2.18 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Liverpool W; market prices Arsenal W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Liverpool W 1.45 xG vs Arsenal W 1.25 → Liverpool W 41.8%
  • Market: Arsenal W ~9.3% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 48.1% · Over 2.5 51.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 49.0% · No 51.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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FA WSL FA WSL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manchester City W 22 18 1 3 55
2 Arsenal W 22 15 6 1 51
3 Chelsea W 22 15 4 3 49
4 Manchester United W 22 11 7 4 40
5 Tottenham Hotspur W 22 11 3 8 36
6 London City Lionesses 22 8 3 11 27
7 Brighton W 22 7 5 10 26
8 Everton W 22 7 2 13 23
9 Aston Villa W 22 5 5 12 20
10 West Ham W 22 5 4 13 19
11 Liverpool W 22 4 5 13 17
12 Leicester City WFC 22 2 3 17 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Manchester City W 22 62 19 +43 55
2 Arsenal W 22 53 14 +39 51
3 Chelsea W 22 44 20 +24 49
4 Manchester United W 22 38 22 +16 40
5 Tottenham Hotspur W 22 35 38 -3 36
6 London City Lionesses 22 28 35 -7 27
7 Aston Villa W 22 28 48 -20 20
8 Brighton W 22 27 28 -1 26
9 Everton W 22 25 37 -12 23
10 Liverpool W 22 21 34 -13 17
11 West Ham W 22 20 45 -25 19
12 Leicester City WFC 22 11 52 -41 9
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Arsenal W 22 1.2 0.2 +1.0 51
2 Everton W 22 0.2 1.2 -1.0 23
3 Manchester City W 22 — — — 55
4 Chelsea W 22 — — — 49
5 Manchester United W 22 — — — 40
6 Tottenham Hotspur W 22 — — — 36
7 London City Lionesses 22 — — — 27
8 Brighton W 22 — — — 26
9 Aston Villa W 22 — — — 20
10 West Ham W 22 — — — 19
11 Liverpool W 22 — — — 17
12 Leicester City WFC 22 — — — 9
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