Leicester City WFC vs Chelsea W Statistics & Analysis

Leicester City WFC

May 03, 2026 - 13:30

1 1.45

3 1.25

xG Accuracy: 55%

Chelsea W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Leicester City WFC Chelsea W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 14:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3433997

Closing Odds 1.06

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Chelsea W win · Leicester City WFC 1–3 Chelsea W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Leicester City WFC (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Leicester City WFC (1X2) by about 37.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Leicester City WFC (1X2)	41.8	4.0	+37.7
Draw (1X2)	25.7	6.7	+18.9
Chelsea W (1X2)	32.6	89.3	-56.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Leicester City WFC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 4.0%. The difference — about 37.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE10)	Closing (PRE1)
Leicester City WFC (1X2)	23.48	23.48
Draw (1X2)	14.09	14.09
Chelsea W (1X2)	1.06	1.06

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FA WSL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Manchester City W	22	18	1	3	55
2	Arsenal W	22	15	6	1	51
3	Chelsea W	22	15	4	3	49
4	Manchester United W	22	11	7	4	40
5	Tottenham Hotspur W	22	11	3	8	36
6	London City Lionesses	22	8	3	11	27
7	Brighton W	22	7	5	10	26
8	Everton W	22	7	2	13	23
9	Aston Villa W	22	5	5	12	20
10	West Ham W	22	5	4	13	19
11	Liverpool W	22	4	5	13	17
12	Leicester City WFC	22	2	3	17	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Manchester City W	22	62	19	+43	55
2	Arsenal W	22	53	14	+39	51
3	Chelsea W	22	44	20	+24	49
4	Manchester United W	22	38	22	+16	40
5	Tottenham Hotspur W	22	35	38	-3	36
6	London City Lionesses	22	28	35	-7	27
7	Aston Villa W	22	28	48	-20	20
8	Brighton W	22	27	28	-1	26
9	Everton W	22	25	37	-12	23
10	Liverpool W	22	21	34	-13	17
11	West Ham W	22	20	45	-25	19
12	Leicester City WFC	22	11	52	-41	9

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Arsenal W	22	1.2	0.2	+1.0	51
2	Everton W	22	0.2	1.2	-1.0	23
3	Manchester City W	22	—	—	—	55
4	Chelsea W	22	—	—	—	49
5	Manchester United W	22	—	—	—	40
6	Tottenham Hotspur W	22	—	—	—	36
7	London City Lionesses	22	—	—	—	27
8	Brighton W	22	—	—	—	26
9	Aston Villa W	22	—	—	—	20
10	West Ham W	22	—	—	—	19
11	Liverpool W	22	—	—	—	17
12	Leicester City WFC	22	—	—	—	9