Statistics / Football / Hungary. NB III - Northeast / Kisvárda II vs Cigand SE

Kisvárda II vs Cigand SE Statistics & Analysis

Kisvárda II Kisvárda II
May 17, 2026 - 09:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Cigand SE Cigand SE
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kisvárda II Kisvárda II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 10:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3041089

Closing Odds 3.07
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Kisvárda II win · Kisvárda II 2–0 Cigand SE
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Cigand SE (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 3.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Kisvárda II (1X2) 41.8 43.8 -2.0
Draw (1X2) 25.7 27.3 -1.6
Cigand SE (1X2) 32.6 28.9 +3.6
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 54.2 -3.6
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 45.8 +3.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.8%. The difference — about 3.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Kisvárda II (1X2) 2.03 2.03 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.26 3.26 0.0
Cigand SE (1X2) 3.07 3.07 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.68 1.68 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.99 1.99 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NB III - Northeast
  • Fixture: Kisvárda II vs Cigand SE
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Kisvárda II 1.45 — Cigand SE 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 45.9% · Probability edge: +3.5 pts · Est. EV: +2.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 73.3% · No 26.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
NB III - Northeast NB III - Northeast — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kisvárda II 30 20 7 3 67
2 Cigand SE 30 18 7 5 61
3 DEAC 30 18 7 5 61
4 Tiszafuredi VSE 30 16 8 6 56
5 Debrecen II 30 16 7 7 55
6 Tarpa 30 12 11 7 47
7 Gödöllő 30 11 7 12 40
8 Diósgyőr II 30 11 5 14 38
9 Nyiregyhaza II 30 11 4 15 37
10 Eger 30 11 4 15 37
11 Tiszaújváros 30 9 7 14 34
12 Putnok VSE 30 9 5 16 32
13 Füzesabony 30 7 9 14 30
14 Ózd Sajóvölgye 30 7 8 15 29
15 Sényő Carnifex 30 7 7 16 28
16 FC Hatvan 30 5 1 24 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cigand SE 30 66 30 +36 61
2 Debrecen II 30 66 40 +26 55
3 Nyiregyhaza II 30 65 56 +9 37
4 DEAC 30 63 29 +34 61
5 Tiszafuredi VSE 30 61 36 +25 56
6 Kisvárda II 30 60 22 +38 67
7 Gödöllő 30 52 44 +8 40
8 Ózd Sajóvölgye 30 51 68 -17 29
9 Diósgyőr II 30 48 58 -10 38
10 Eger 30 46 71 -25 37
11 Putnok VSE 30 44 52 -8 32
12 Tiszaújváros 30 41 66 -25 34
13 Tarpa 30 39 28 +11 47
14 FC Hatvan 30 37 81 -44 16
15 Sényő Carnifex 30 32 74 -42 28
16 Füzesabony 30 25 41 -16 30
NB III - Northeast Hungary. NB III - Northeast Predictions