Sényő Carnifex vs Tiszafuredi VSE Statistics & Analysis

Sényő Carnifex

May 10, 2026 - 15:00

0 1.45

2 1.25

xG Accuracy: 55%

Tiszafuredi VSE

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Sényő Carnifex Tiszafuredi VSE ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 0-1, 1-3 0-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1460730

Closing Odds 1.63

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Tiszafuredi VSE win · Sényő Carnifex 0–2 Tiszafuredi VSE

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Sényő Carnifex (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sényő Carnifex (1X2) by about 17.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Sényő Carnifex (1X2)	41.8	24.8	+17.0
Draw (1X2)	25.7	20.7	+4.9
Tiszafuredi VSE (1X2)	32.6	54.5	-21.9
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	61.2	-10.6
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	38.8	+10.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Sényő Carnifex (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.8%. The difference — about 17.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Sényő Carnifex (1X2)	3.58	3.58
Draw (1X2)	4.28	4.28
Tiszafuredi VSE (1X2)	1.63	1.63
Over 2.5 goals	1.49	1.49
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	2.35

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: NB III - Northeast
Fixture: Sényő Carnifex vs Tiszafuredi VSE
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Sényő Carnifex 1.45 — Tiszafuredi VSE 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 49.4% · Implied: 38.7% · Probability edge: +10.7 pts · Est. EV: +23.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 46.6% · No 53.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.8%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Northeast — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Kisvárda II	30	20	7	3	67
2	Cigand SE	30	18	7	5	61
3	DEAC	30	18	7	5	61
4	Tiszafuredi VSE	30	16	8	6	56
5	Debrecen II	30	16	7	7	55
6	Tarpa	30	12	11	7	47
7	Gödöllő	30	11	7	12	40
8	Diósgyőr II	30	11	5	14	38
9	Nyiregyhaza II	30	11	4	15	37
10	Eger	30	11	4	15	37
11	Tiszaújváros	30	9	7	14	34
12	Putnok VSE	30	9	5	16	32
13	Füzesabony	30	7	9	14	30
14	Ózd Sajóvölgye	30	7	8	15	29
15	Sényő Carnifex	30	7	7	16	28
16	FC Hatvan	30	5	1	24	16

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Cigand SE	30	66	30	+36	61
2	Debrecen II	30	66	40	+26	55
3	Nyiregyhaza II	30	65	56	+9	37
4	DEAC	30	63	29	+34	61
5	Tiszafuredi VSE	30	61	36	+25	56
6	Kisvárda II	30	60	22	+38	67
7	Gödöllő	30	52	44	+8	40
8	Ózd Sajóvölgye	30	51	68	-17	29
9	Diósgyőr II	30	48	58	-10	38
10	Eger	30	46	71	-25	37
11	Putnok VSE	30	44	52	-8	32
12	Tiszaújváros	30	41	66	-25	34
13	Tarpa	30	39	28	+11	47
14	FC Hatvan	30	37	81	-44	16
15	Sényő Carnifex	30	32	74	-42	28
16	Füzesabony	30	25	41	-16	30