Tatabánya vs Balatonfüredi Statistics & Analysis

Tatabánya

May 24, 2026 - 13:00

3 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 46%

Balatonfüredi

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Tatabánya Tatabánya ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 3-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 09:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5329542

Closing Odds 1.2

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Tatabánya win · Tatabánya 3–0 Balatonfüredi

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Balatonfüredi (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Balatonfüredi (1X2) by about 22.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Tatabánya (1X2)	41.8	76.3	-34.5
Draw (1X2)	25.7	14.1	+11.6
Balatonfüredi (1X2)	32.6	9.6	+22.9
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	68.8	-18.2
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	31.2	+18.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Balatonfüredi (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 9.6%. The difference — about 22.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Tatabánya (1X2)	1.2	1.2
Draw (1X2)	6.5	6.5
Balatonfüredi (1X2)	9.5	9.5
Over 2.5 goals	1.36	1.36
Under 2.5 goals	3.0	3.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Tatabánya; market prices Tatabánya instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Tatabánya 1.45 xG vs Balatonfüredi 1.25 → Tatabánya 41.8%
Market: Tatabánya ~76.3% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 41.2% · Over 2.5 58.8%); BTTS No (Yes 44.6% · No 55.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Tatabánya & Balatonfüredi!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

NB III - Northwest — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Gyirmot SE	30	27	1	2	82
2	Tatabánya	30	20	2	8	62
3	Dorogi FC	30	18	4	8	58
4	Puskás II	30	17	3	10	54
5	Komárom	30	15	6	9	51
6	Haladás VSE	30	15	6	9	51
7	MTE 1904	30	14	5	11	47
8	Veszprém	30	12	8	10	44
9	Budaörs	30	12	5	13	41
10	Bicskei	30	10	6	14	36
11	Gyori ETO II	30	10	4	16	34
12	Újpest II	30	9	7	14	34
13	SC Sopron	30	9	7	14	34
14	Pápai Perutz	30	6	4	20	22
15	Balatonfüredi	30	4	6	20	18
16	Zsámbéki SK	30	3	4	23	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Gyirmot SE	30	106	20	+86	82
2	Tatabánya	30	64	37	+27	62
3	Komárom	30	59	45	+14	51
4	Puskás II	30	58	37	+21	54
5	Budaörs	30	53	51	+2	41
6	Bicskei	30	50	51	-1	36
7	Dorogi FC	30	49	34	+15	58
8	MTE 1904	30	48	33	+15	47
9	Gyori ETO II	30	47	63	-16	34
10	Újpest II	30	46	50	-4	34
11	Haladás VSE	30	43	32	+11	51
12	SC Sopron	30	43	58	-15	34
13	Pápai Perutz	30	43	83	-40	22
14	Veszprém	30	36	37	-1	44
15	Zsámbéki SK	30	35	107	-72	13
16	Balatonfüredi	30	20	62	-42	18