Újpest II vs Pápai Perutz Statistics & Analysis

Újpest II

May 17, 2026 - 09:00

3 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 46%

Pápai Perutz

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Újpest II Újpest II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 12:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2194299

Closing Odds 1.59

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Újpest II win · Újpest II 3–0 Pápai Perutz

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Pápai Perutz (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Pápai Perutz (1X2) by about 11.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Újpest II (1X2)	41.8	55.8	-14.1
Draw (1X2)	25.7	23.3	+2.4
Pápai Perutz (1X2)	32.6	20.9	+11.7
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	60.1	-9.5
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	39.9	+9.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Pápai Perutz (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.9%. The difference — about 11.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Újpest II (1X2)	1.59	1.59
Draw (1X2)	3.81	3.81
Pápai Perutz (1X2)	4.25	4.25
Over 2.5 goals	1.52	1.52
Under 2.5 goals	2.29	2.29

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: NB III - Northwest
Fixture: Újpest II vs Pápai Perutz
Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Újpest II 1.45 — Pápai Perutz 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 49.4% · Implied: 38.5% · Probability edge: +10.9 pts · Est. EV: +43.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 56.1% · No 43.9%
Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.7%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Northwest — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Gyirmot SE	30	27	1	2	82
2	Tatabánya	30	20	2	8	62
3	Dorogi FC	30	18	4	8	58
4	Puskás II	30	17	3	10	54
5	Komárom	30	15	6	9	51
6	Haladás VSE	30	15	6	9	51
7	MTE 1904	30	14	5	11	47
8	Veszprém	30	12	8	10	44
9	Budaörs	30	12	5	13	41
10	Bicskei	30	10	6	14	36
11	Gyori ETO II	30	10	4	16	34
12	Újpest II	30	9	7	14	34
13	SC Sopron	30	9	7	14	34
14	Pápai Perutz	30	6	4	20	22
15	Balatonfüredi	30	4	6	20	18
16	Zsámbéki SK	30	3	4	23	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Gyirmot SE	30	106	20	+86	82
2	Tatabánya	30	64	37	+27	62
3	Komárom	30	59	45	+14	51
4	Puskás II	30	58	37	+21	54
5	Budaörs	30	53	51	+2	41
6	Bicskei	30	50	51	-1	36
7	Dorogi FC	30	49	34	+15	58
8	MTE 1904	30	48	33	+15	47
9	Gyori ETO II	30	47	63	-16	34
10	Újpest II	30	46	50	-4	34
11	Haladás VSE	30	43	32	+11	51
12	SC Sopron	30	43	58	-15	34
13	Pápai Perutz	30	43	83	-40	22
14	Veszprém	30	36	37	-1	44
15	Zsámbéki SK	30	35	107	-72	13
16	Balatonfüredi	30	20	62	-42	18