Statistics / Football / Hungary. NB III - Southwest / Ferencváros II vs Pécsi MFC

Ferencváros II vs Pécsi MFC Statistics & Analysis

Ferencváros II Ferencváros II
May 17, 2026 - 09:00
3 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 31%
Pécsi MFC Pécsi MFC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ferencváros II Pécsi MFC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1663581

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pécsi MFC win · Ferencváros II 3–4 Pécsi MFC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: NB III - Southwest
  • Fixture: Ferencváros II vs Pécsi MFC
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Ferencváros II 1.45 — Pécsi MFC 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 37.0% · Over 2.5 63.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 72.6% · No 27.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 72.6% · No 27.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.0%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Southwest NB III - Southwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nagykanizsai ULE 30 21 6 3 69
2 Pécsi MFC 30 20 7 3 67
3 Kaposvar 30 20 3 7 63
4 Ferencváros II 30 17 4 9 55
5 Majosi 30 17 3 10 54
6 MTK Budapest II 30 16 4 10 52
7 Érdi VSE 30 15 7 8 52
8 Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 30 13 10 7 49
9 Iváncsa 30 11 6 13 39
10 Siofok 30 11 5 14 38
11 Paksi SE II 30 10 2 18 32
12 Szekszárd 30 9 4 17 31
13 PTE-PEAC 30 6 10 14 28
14 Balatonlelle SE 30 6 6 18 24
15 Pénzügyőr 30 4 8 18 20
16 Dombóvári 30 0 3 27 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Majosi 30 78 49 +29 54
2 Pécsi MFC 30 71 25 +46 67
3 Nagykanizsai ULE 30 64 27 +37 69
4 Kaposvar 30 64 32 +32 63
5 Ferencváros II 30 63 43 +20 55
6 MTK Budapest II 30 62 33 +29 52
7 Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 30 58 42 +16 49
8 Iváncsa 30 49 44 +5 39
9 Érdi VSE 30 47 39 +8 52
10 Szekszárd 30 43 75 -32 31
11 Paksi SE II 30 42 62 -20 32
12 Siofok 30 40 55 -15 38
13 PTE-PEAC 30 39 51 -12 28
14 Pénzügyőr 30 31 61 -30 20
15 Balatonlelle SE 30 24 53 -29 24
16 Dombóvári 30 22 106 -84 3
NB III - Southwest Hungary. NB III - Southwest Predictions