Statistics / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Bremen / Oberneuland vs Werder Bremen III

Oberneuland vs Werder Bremen III Statistics & Analysis

Oberneuland Oberneuland
May 15, 2026 - 17:15
4 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 35%
Werder Bremen III Werder Bremen III
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Oberneuland Oberneuland ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-2, 1-1, 1-2, 3-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 16:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3190942

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Oberneuland win · Oberneuland 4–0 Werder Bremen III
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Oberliga - Bremen
  • Fixture: Oberneuland vs Werder Bremen III
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-15 17:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Oberneuland 1.45 — Werder Bremen III 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 21.0% · Over 2.5 79.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 56.2% · No 43.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 56.2% · No 43.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (7.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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