Statistics / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Bremen / Aumund-Vegesack vs Brinkumer SV

Aumund-Vegesack vs Brinkumer SV Statistics & Analysis

Aumund-Vegesack Aumund-Vegesack
May 15, 2026 - 17:15
1 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Brinkumer SV Brinkumer SV
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Aumund-Vegesack Brinkumer SV ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3, 1-1 1-3 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 18:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3201438

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Brinkumer SV win · Aumund-Vegesack 1–3 Brinkumer SV
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Oberliga - Bremen
  • Fixture: Aumund-Vegesack vs Brinkumer SV
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-15 17:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Aumund-Vegesack 1.45 — Brinkumer SV 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 17.9% · Over 2.5 82.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 67.0% · No 33.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 67.0% · No 33.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (7.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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