Statistics / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Bremen / Sebaldsbrück vs Werder Bremen III

Sebaldsbrück vs Werder Bremen III Statistics & Analysis

Sebaldsbrück Sebaldsbrück
May 10, 2026 - 11:15
2 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 40%
Werder Bremen III Werder Bremen III
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Werder Bremen III ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 2-2, 1-3, 2-3, 1-1 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2587073

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Werder Bremen III win · Sebaldsbrück 2–4 Werder Bremen III
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Oberliga - Bremen
  • Fixture: Sebaldsbrück vs Werder Bremen III
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 11:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Sebaldsbrück 1.45 — Werder Bremen III 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 17.4% · Over 2.5 82.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.1% · No 47.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.1% · No 47.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (7.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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