Nordmark Satrup vs VfR Neumünster Statistics & Analysis

Nordmark Satrup

May 16, 2026 - 12:00

2 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 80%

VfR Neumünster

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Nordmark Satrup Nordmark Satrup ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 14:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2760583

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Nordmark Satrup win · Nordmark Satrup 2–1 VfR Neumünster

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein
Fixture: Nordmark Satrup vs VfR Neumünster
Kickoff: 2026-05-16 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Nordmark Satrup 1.45 — VfR Neumünster 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 31.2% · Over 2.5 68.8%); BTTS Yes (Yes 69.4% · No 30.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 69.4% · No 30.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.0%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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