Miedź Legnica II vs Starowice Dolne Statistics & Analysis

Miedź Legnica II

May 30, 2026 - 15:00

2 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 80%

Starowice Dolne

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Miedź Legnica II Miedź Legnica II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 3-1, 1-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 14:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2991470

Closing Odds 1.16

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Miedź Legnica II win · Miedź Legnica II 2–1 Starowice Dolne

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Starowice Dolne (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Starowice Dolne (1X2) by about 22.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Miedź Legnica II (1X2)	41.8	76.4	-34.7
Draw (1X2)	25.7	13.2	+12.4
Starowice Dolne (1X2)	32.6	10.3	+22.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Starowice Dolne (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 10.3%. The difference — about 22.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Miedź Legnica II (1X2)	1.16	1.16
Draw (1X2)	6.69	6.69
Starowice Dolne (1X2)	8.59	8.59

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Miedź Legnica II; market prices Miedź Legnica II instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Miedź Legnica II 1.45 xG vs Starowice Dolne 1.25 → Miedź Legnica II 41.8%
Market: Miedź Legnica II ~76.4% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 32.1% · Over 2.5 67.9%); BTTS No (Yes 46.4% · No 53.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 3 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Lechia Zielona Góra	34	21	10	3	73
2	Górnik Polkowice	34	20	7	7	67
3	Sparta Katowice	34	18	8	8	62
4	SKRA Częstochowa	34	17	8	9	59
5	Zagłębie Lubin II	34	17	6	11	57
6	Goczałkowice Zdrój	34	15	9	10	54
7	Kluczbork	34	15	8	12	52
8	Warta Gorzów	34	15	8	12	52
9	Górnik Zabrze II	34	15	6	13	51
10	Ślęza Wrocław	34	14	8	13	49
11	Słowianin	34	13	9	12	48
12	Carina Gubin	34	12	11	11	47
13	Miedź Legnica II	34	13	7	14	46
14	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	34	12	9	13	45
15	Polonia Nysa	34	9	10	15	37
16	Starowice Dolne	34	7	6	21	27
17	Pawłowice Śląskie	34	5	5	25	20
18	Stal Jasień	34	2	1	31	7

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Lechia Zielona Góra	34	77	17	+60	73
2	Zagłębie Lubin II	34	77	61	+16	57
3	Górnik Zabrze II	34	73	44	+29	51
4	SKRA Częstochowa	34	68	56	+12	59
5	Kluczbork	34	67	43	+24	52
6	Górnik Polkowice	34	64	42	+22	67
7	Miedź Legnica II	34	63	58	+5	46
8	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	34	57	56	+1	45
9	Warta Gorzów	34	54	47	+7	52
10	Sparta Katowice	34	53	34	+19	62
11	Polonia Nysa	34	51	58	-7	37
12	Carina Gubin	34	50	51	-1	47
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	34	49	46	+3	54
14	Ślęza Wrocław	34	49	57	-8	49
15	Słowianin	34	48	49	-1	48
16	Starowice Dolne	34	33	81	-48	27
17	Pawłowice Śląskie	34	28	77	-49	20
18	Stal Jasień	34	21	105	-84	7