Starowice Dolne vs Sparta Katowice Statistics & Analysis

Starowice Dolne

May 13, 2026 - 15:00

2 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 80%

Sparta Katowice

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 draw Starowice Dolne ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-3 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 05:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1680013

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Starowice Dolne win · Starowice Dolne 2–1 Sparta Katowice

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: III Liga - Group 3
Fixture: Starowice Dolne vs Sparta Katowice
Kickoff: 2026-05-13 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Starowice Dolne 1.45 — Sparta Katowice 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 44.6% · Over 2.5 55.4%); BTTS No (Yes 46.1% · No 53.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 46.1% · No 53.9%
Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (10.7%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

III Liga - Group 3 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Lechia Zielona Góra	34	21	10	3	73
2	Górnik Polkowice	34	20	7	7	67
3	Sparta Katowice	34	18	8	8	62
4	SKRA Częstochowa	34	17	8	9	59
5	Zagłębie Lubin II	34	17	6	11	57
6	Goczałkowice Zdrój	34	15	9	10	54
7	Kluczbork	34	15	8	12	52
8	Warta Gorzów	34	15	8	12	52
9	Górnik Zabrze II	34	15	6	13	51
10	Ślęza Wrocław	34	14	8	13	49
11	Słowianin	34	13	9	12	48
12	Carina Gubin	34	12	11	11	47
13	Miedź Legnica II	34	13	7	14	46
14	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	34	12	9	13	45
15	Polonia Nysa	34	9	10	15	37
16	Starowice Dolne	34	7	6	21	27
17	Pawłowice Śląskie	34	5	5	25	20
18	Stal Jasień	34	2	1	31	7

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Lechia Zielona Góra	34	77	17	+60	73
2	Zagłębie Lubin II	34	77	61	+16	57
3	Górnik Zabrze II	34	73	44	+29	51
4	SKRA Częstochowa	34	68	56	+12	59
5	Kluczbork	34	67	43	+24	52
6	Górnik Polkowice	34	64	42	+22	67
7	Miedź Legnica II	34	63	58	+5	46
8	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	34	57	56	+1	45
9	Warta Gorzów	34	54	47	+7	52
10	Sparta Katowice	34	53	34	+19	62
11	Polonia Nysa	34	51	58	-7	37
12	Carina Gubin	34	50	51	-1	47
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	34	49	46	+3	54
14	Ślęza Wrocław	34	49	57	-8	49
15	Słowianin	34	48	49	-1	48
16	Starowice Dolne	34	33	81	-48	27
17	Pawłowice Śląskie	34	28	77	-49	20
18	Stal Jasień	34	21	105	-84	7