Karkonosze Jelenia Góra vs Goczałkowice Zdrój Statistics & Analysis

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

May 08, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 63%

Goczałkowice Zdrój

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra Goczałkowice Zdrój ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: III Liga - Group 3
Fixture: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra vs Goczałkowice Zdrój
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1.45 — Goczałkowice Zdrój 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 67.0% · Implied: 61.3% · Probability edge: +5.7 pts · Est. EV: +7.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 67.0% · No 33.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.0%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary pick from the decision engine: BTTS Yes.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 17, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Back to Statistics

III Liga - Group 3 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Lechia Zielona Góra	31	18	10	3	64
2	Górnik Polkowice	31	19	7	5	64
3	Zagłębie Lubin II	32	17	6	9	57
4	SKRA Częstochowa	31	16	8	7	56
5	Sparta Katowice	31	15	8	8	53
6	Goczałkowice Zdrój	31	14	8	9	50
7	Kluczbork	31	14	7	10	49
8	Górnik Zabrze II	31	14	5	12	47
9	Warta Gorzów	32	13	7	12	46
10	Ślęza Wrocław	31	12	7	12	43
11	Słowianin	31	11	9	11	42
12	Carina Gubin	31	10	11	10	41
13	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	31	10	9	12	39
14	Miedź Legnica II	31	10	7	14	37
15	Polonia Nysa	31	8	10	13	34
16	Starowice Dolne	31	7	6	18	27
17	Pawłowice Śląskie	31	5	4	22	19
18	Stal Jasień	31	2	1	28	7

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Zagłębie Lubin II	32	74	55	+19	57
2	Lechia Zielona Góra	31	66	15	+51	64
3	Górnik Zabrze II	31	65	40	+25	47
4	SKRA Częstochowa	31	63	53	+10	56
5	Górnik Polkowice	31	60	33	+27	64
6	Kluczbork	31	60	39	+21	49
7	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	31	52	51	+1	39
8	Miedź Legnica II	31	52	56	-4	37
9	Warta Gorzów	32	51	47	+4	46
10	Sparta Katowice	31	46	32	+14	53
11	Polonia Nysa	31	46	51	-5	34
12	Goczałkowice Zdrój	31	44	38	+6	50
13	Carina Gubin	31	44	49	-5	41
14	Słowianin	31	43	46	-3	42
15	Ślęza Wrocław	31	43	49	-6	43
16	Starowice Dolne	31	31	72	-41	27
17	Pawłowice Śląskie	31	26	65	-39	19
18	Stal Jasień	31	21	96	-75	7