Flota Świnoujście vs Cartusia Kartuzy Statistics & Analysis

Flota Świnoujście

May 22, 2026 - 16:00

0 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 48%

Cartusia Kartuzy

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Flota Świnoujście Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 07:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7602022

Closing Odds 1.92

AI Fair Odds 2.02

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Flota Świnoujście 0–0 Cartusia Kartuzy

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

Expected: 49.4%
Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Cartusia Kartuzy (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 5.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Flota Świnoujście (1X2)	41.8	46.3	-4.5
Draw (1X2)	25.7	23.7	+2.0
Cartusia Kartuzy (1X2)	32.6	30.0	+2.5
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	55.8	-5.2
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	44.2	+5.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 44.2%. The difference — about 5.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Flota Świnoujście (1X2)	1.92	1.92
Draw (1X2)	3.75	3.75
Cartusia Kartuzy (1X2)	2.96	2.96
Over 2.5 goals	1.65	1.65
Under 2.5 goals	2.08	2.08

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: III Liga - Group 2
Fixture: Flota Świnoujście vs Cartusia Kartuzy
Kickoff: 2026-05-23 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Flota Świnoujście 1.45 — Cartusia Kartuzy 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 49.4% · Implied: 43.3% · Probability edge: +6.1 pts · Est. EV: +17.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 48.2% · No 51.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Flota Świnoujście & Cartusia Kartuzy!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

III Liga - Group 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	34	25	5	4	80
2	Luzino	34	24	4	6	76
3	Polonia Środa	34	20	6	8	66
4	Lipno Stęszew	34	15	6	13	51
5	Noteć Czarnków	34	14	7	14	49
6	Elana Toruń	34	14	7	13	49
7	Lech Poznań II	34	14	7	13	49
8	Flota Świnoujście	34	14	7	13	49
9	Wda Świecie	34	14	6	14	48
10	Unia Swarzędz	34	13	8	13	47
11	Kluczevia Stargard	34	13	7	14	46
12	Stargard Szczeciński	34	12	9	13	45
13	Victoria Września	34	13	3	18	42
14	Pogoń Szczecin II	34	12	5	17	41
15	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	34	10	9	15	39
16	Cartusia Kartuzy	34	11	5	18	38
17	Tłuchowia	34	8	6	19	31
18	Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal	34	3	6	25	15

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Luzino	34	79	39	+40	76
2	Pogoń Szczecin II	34	75	66	+9	41
3	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	34	73	23	+50	80
4	Polonia Środa	34	67	43	+24	66
5	Lech Poznań II	34	67	54	+13	49
6	Stargard Szczeciński	34	56	51	+5	45
7	Kluczevia Stargard	34	54	43	+11	46
8	Noteć Czarnków	34	49	46	+3	49
9	Elana Toruń	34	49	55	-6	49
10	Flota Świnoujście	34	48	52	-4	49
11	Unia Swarzędz	34	47	41	+6	47
12	Lipno Stęszew	34	47	54	-7	51
13	Wda Świecie	34	44	66	-22	48
14	Victoria Września	34	41	46	-5	42
15	Cartusia Kartuzy	34	38	51	-13	38
16	Tłuchowia	34	37	66	-29	31
17	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	34	35	46	-11	39
18	Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal	34	20	84	-64	15