Tłuchowia vs Lech Poznań II Statistics & Analysis

Tłuchowia

May 13, 2026 - 15:00

3 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 61%

Lech Poznań II

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Tłuchowia Tłuchowia ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 1-3 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 03:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7710839

Closing Odds 1.61

AI Fair Odds 2.02

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Tłuchowia win · Tłuchowia 3–1 Lech Poznań II

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Probability Calibration

Expected: 49.4%
Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Tłuchowia (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Tłuchowia (1X2) by about 19.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Tłuchowia (1X2)	41.8	22.1	+19.6
Draw (1X2)	25.7	22.7	+3.0
Lech Poznań II (1X2)	32.6	55.2	-22.6
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	63.0	-12.4
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	37.0	+12.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Tłuchowia (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.1%. The difference — about 19.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Tłuchowia (1X2)	4.02	4.02
Draw (1X2)	3.92	3.92
Lech Poznań II (1X2)	1.61	1.61
Over 2.5 goals	1.45	1.45
Under 2.5 goals	2.47	2.47

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: III Liga - Group 2
Fixture: Tłuchowia vs Lech Poznań II
Kickoff: 2026-05-13 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Tłuchowia 1.45 — Lech Poznań II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 49.4% · Implied: 39.3% · Probability edge: +10.1 pts · Est. EV: +26.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 47.2% · No 52.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

III Liga - Group 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	34	25	5	4	80
2	Luzino	34	24	4	6	76
3	Polonia Środa	34	20	6	8	66
4	Lipno Stęszew	34	15	6	13	51
5	Noteć Czarnków	34	14	7	14	49
6	Elana Toruń	34	14	7	13	49
7	Lech Poznań II	34	14	7	13	49
8	Flota Świnoujście	34	14	7	13	49
9	Wda Świecie	34	14	6	14	48
10	Unia Swarzędz	34	13	8	13	47
11	Kluczevia Stargard	34	13	7	14	46
12	Stargard Szczeciński	34	12	9	13	45
13	Victoria Września	34	13	3	18	42
14	Pogoń Szczecin II	34	12	5	17	41
15	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	34	10	9	15	39
16	Cartusia Kartuzy	34	11	5	18	38
17	Tłuchowia	34	8	6	19	31
18	Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal	34	3	6	25	15

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Luzino	34	79	39	+40	76
2	Pogoń Szczecin II	34	75	66	+9	41
3	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	34	73	23	+50	80
4	Polonia Środa	34	67	43	+24	66
5	Lech Poznań II	34	67	54	+13	49
6	Stargard Szczeciński	34	56	51	+5	45
7	Kluczevia Stargard	34	54	43	+11	46
8	Noteć Czarnków	34	49	46	+3	49
9	Elana Toruń	34	49	55	-6	49
10	Flota Świnoujście	34	48	52	-4	49
11	Unia Swarzędz	34	47	41	+6	47
12	Lipno Stęszew	34	47	54	-7	51
13	Wda Świecie	34	44	66	-22	48
14	Victoria Września	34	41	46	-5	42
15	Cartusia Kartuzy	34	38	51	-13	38
16	Tłuchowia	34	37	66	-29	31
17	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	34	35	46	-11	39
18	Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal	34	20	84	-64	15