Statistics / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 1 / Jagiellonia II vs Wasilków

Jagiellonia II vs Wasilków Statistics & Analysis

Jagiellonia II Jagiellonia II
May 30, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Wasilków Wasilków
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Jagiellonia II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1667568

Closing Odds 1.36
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Jagiellonia II 1–1 Wasilków
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Wasilków (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Wasilków (1X2) by about 16.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Jagiellonia II (1X2) 41.8 65.3 -23.5
Draw (1X2) 25.7 18.4 +7.2
Wasilków (1X2) 32.6 16.3 +16.3
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 66.6 -16.0
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 33.4 +16.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Wasilków (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.3%. The difference — about 16.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Jagiellonia II (1X2) 1.36 1.36 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.81 4.81 0.0
Wasilków (1X2) 5.45 5.45 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.37 1.37 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.73 2.73 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 1
  • Fixture: Jagiellonia II vs Wasilków
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-30 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Jagiellonia II 1.45 — Wasilków 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 39.0% · Over 2.5 61.0%); BTTS No (Yes 48.2% · No 51.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.2% · No 51.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
III Liga - Group 1 III Liga - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Legia Warszawa II 34 27 3 4 84
2 Łomża 34 22 5 7 71
3 Warta Sieradz 34 21 8 5 71
4 Wigry Suwałki 34 20 5 9 65
5 Troszyn 34 17 6 11 57
6 Wisła Płock II 34 16 8 10 56
7 Widzew II 34 17 3 14 54
8 Jagiellonia II 34 14 7 13 49
9 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 34 13 8 13 47
10 Ząbkovia Ząbki 34 13 5 16 44
11 Swit 34 12 5 17 41
12 Mławianka Mława 34 11 7 16 40
13 Olimpia Elbląg 34 10 8 16 38
14 Wikielec 34 10 7 17 37
15 Broń Radom 34 9 9 16 36
16 Bełchatów 34 9 7 18 34
17 Wasilków 34 7 4 23 25
18 Znicz Biała Piska 34 4 3 27 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Legia Warszawa II 34 82 29 +53 84
2 Łomża 34 77 31 +46 71
3 Troszyn 34 75 47 +28 57
4 Ząbkovia Ząbki 34 72 64 +8 44
5 Widzew II 34 70 64 +6 54
6 Warta Sieradz 34 64 34 +30 71
7 Wigry Suwałki 34 64 43 +21 65
8 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 34 64 55 +9 47
9 Wisła Płock II 34 56 51 +5 56
10 Mławianka Mława 34 55 59 -4 40
11 Swit 34 51 66 -15 41
12 Bełchatów 34 50 76 -26 34
13 Jagiellonia II 34 46 45 +1 49
14 Olimpia Elbląg 34 45 61 -16 38
15 Wikielec 34 40 54 -14 37
16 Broń Radom 34 40 57 -17 36
17 Wasilków 34 40 79 -39 25
18 Znicz Biała Piska 34 27 103 -76 15
III Liga - Group 1 Poland. III Liga - Group 1 Predictions