Todesfelde vs Heider SV Statistics & Analysis

Todesfelde

May 09, 2026 - 12:00

2 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 61%

Heider SV

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Todesfelde Todesfelde ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-0, 2-2 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 08:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1576567

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Todesfelde win · Todesfelde 2–0 Heider SV

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein
Fixture: Todesfelde vs Heider SV
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Todesfelde 1.45 — Heider SV 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 28.5% · Over 2.5 71.5%); BTTS Yes (Yes 85.5% · No 14.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 85.5% · No 14.5%
Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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