Phönix L. II vs Preußen Reinfeld Statistics & Analysis

Phönix L. II

May 10, 2026 - 16:00

4 1.45

4 1.25

xG Accuracy: 23%

Preußen Reinfeld

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Phönix L. II Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 3-1, 1-1, 2-2, 3-2 4-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 00:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3149752

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Phönix L. II 4–4 Preußen Reinfeld

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein
Fixture: Phönix L. II vs Preußen Reinfeld
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Phönix L. II 1.45 — Preußen Reinfeld 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 23.1% · Over 2.5 76.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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