Hohenwestedt vs Union Neumünster Statistics & Analysis

Hohenwestedt

May 09, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.45

3 1.25

xG Accuracy: 55%

Union Neumünster

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 draw Union Neumünster ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 1-3 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 01:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2553575

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Union Neumünster win · Hohenwestedt 1–3 Union Neumünster

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein
Fixture: Hohenwestedt vs Union Neumünster
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Hohenwestedt 1.45 — Union Neumünster 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 25.3% · Over 2.5 74.7%); BTTS Yes (Yes 63.4% · No 36.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 63.4% · No 36.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (8.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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