Freiburg II vs Kickers Offenbach Statistics & Analysis

Freiburg II

May 09, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.45

3 1.25

xG Accuracy: 55%

Kickers Offenbach

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Freiburg II Kickers Offenbach ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 1-3 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 18:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1623502

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Kickers Offenbach win · Freiburg II 1–3 Kickers Offenbach

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Regionalliga - SudWest
Fixture: Freiburg II vs Kickers Offenbach
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Freiburg II 1.45 — Kickers Offenbach 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 25.3% · Over 2.5 74.7%); BTTS Yes (Yes 82.0% · No 18.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 82.0% · No 18.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (7.7%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Regionalliga - SudWest — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	34	20	8	6	68
2	SGV Freiberg	34	18	8	8	62
3	FSV Frankfurt	34	16	9	9	57
4	FC 08 Homburg	34	15	11	8	56
5	TSV Steinbach	34	16	8	10	56
6	Hessen Kassel	34	15	9	10	54
7	Stuttgarter Kickers	34	17	3	14	54
8	SV Sandhausen	34	16	6	12	54
9	FSV Mainz 05 II	34	14	11	9	53
10	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	34	13	10	11	49
11	Freiburg II	34	14	6	14	48
12	FC Astoria Walldorf	34	13	8	13	47
13	Eintracht Trier	34	13	8	13	47
14	Kickers Offenbach	34	11	10	13	43
15	Bayern Alzenau	34	7	6	21	27
16	Schott Mainz	34	7	4	23	25
17	Balingen	34	6	7	21	25
18	Bahlinger SC	34	4	10	20	22

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	34	86	43	+43	68
2	TSV Steinbach	34	78	58	+20	56
3	Freiburg II	34	74	73	+1	48
4	FC 08 Homburg	34	71	42	+29	56
5	SGV Freiberg	34	68	38	+30	62
6	FSV Frankfurt	34	64	48	+16	57
7	FC Astoria Walldorf	34	64	65	-1	47
8	Hessen Kassel	34	62	51	+11	54
9	Kickers Offenbach	34	57	58	-1	43
10	SV Sandhausen	34	53	56	-3	54
11	FSV Mainz 05 II	34	52	45	+7	53
12	Stuttgarter Kickers	34	51	44	+7	54
13	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	34	51	44	+7	49
14	Eintracht Trier	34	48	52	-4	47
15	Bayern Alzenau	34	45	74	-29	27
16	Schott Mainz	34	40	83	-43	25
17	Balingen	34	38	87	-49	25
18	Bahlinger SC	34	34	75	-41	22