Ansbach vs Würzburger Kickers Statistics & Analysis

Ansbach

May 16, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.45

4 1.25

xG Accuracy: 42%

Würzburger Kickers

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Ansbach Würzburger Kickers ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 1-3 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 07:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3392019

Closing Odds 1.33

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Würzburger Kickers win · Ansbach 1–4 Würzburger Kickers

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Ansbach (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ansbach (1X2) by about 26.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Ansbach (1X2)	41.8	14.8	+26.9
Draw (1X2)	25.7	18.8	+6.9
Würzburger Kickers (1X2)	32.6	66.4	-33.9
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	66.8	-16.1
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	33.2	+16.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Ansbach (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.8%. The difference — about 26.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Ansbach (1X2)	5.96	5.96
Draw (1X2)	4.71	4.71
Würzburger Kickers (1X2)	1.33	1.33
Over 2.5 goals	1.36	1.36
Under 2.5 goals	2.73	2.73

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Ansbach; market prices Würzburger Kickers instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Ansbach 1.45 xG vs Würzburger Kickers 1.25 → Ansbach 41.8%
Market: Würzburger Kickers ~14.8% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 40.1% · Over 2.5 59.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 77.1% · No 22.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Bayern — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Nürnberg II	34	24	5	5	77
2	Würzburger Kickers	34	22	9	3	75
3	SpVgg Unterhaching	34	22	4	8	70
4	Illertissen	34	19	7	8	64
5	Vilzing	34	15	6	13	51
6	Aubstadt	34	13	10	11	49
7	Eichstätt	34	12	12	10	48
8	Bayern München II	34	14	6	14	47
9	Wacker Burghausen	34	13	8	13	47
10	Ansbach	34	13	7	14	46
11	Buchbach	34	13	7	14	46
12	Memmingen	34	10	12	12	42
13	Bayreuth	34	9	11	14	38
14	Augsburg II	34	9	7	18	34
15	Schwaben Augsburg	34	9	7	18	34
16	Greuther Fürth II	34	6	10	18	28
17	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	34	6	8	20	26
18	Hankofen-Hailing	34	5	8	21	23

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Würzburger Kickers	34	74	25	+49	75
2	SpVgg Unterhaching	34	72	30	+42	70
3	Illertissen	34	72	46	+26	64
4	Nürnberg II	34	68	35	+33	77
5	Bayern München II	34	61	52	+9	47
6	Ansbach	34	54	65	-11	46
7	Buchbach	34	54	69	-15	46
8	Vilzing	34	49	44	+5	51
9	Aubstadt	34	49	45	+4	49
10	Eichstätt	34	48	37	+11	48
11	Greuther Fürth II	34	47	60	-13	28
12	Wacker Burghausen	34	46	50	-4	47
13	Memmingen	34	43	47	-4	42
14	Schwaben Augsburg	34	39	60	-21	34
15	Augsburg II	34	37	48	-11	34
16	Bayreuth	34	36	53	-17	38
17	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	34	31	71	-40	26
18	Hankofen-Hailing	34	31	74	-43	23