Statistics / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Hamburg / Niendorfer TSV vs Teutonia Ottensen

Niendorfer TSV vs Teutonia Ottensen Statistics & Analysis

Niendorfer TSV Niendorfer TSV
May 09, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Teutonia Ottensen Teutonia Ottensen
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Niendorfer TSV Niendorfer TSV ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Oberliga - Hamburg
  • Fixture: Niendorfer TSV vs Teutonia Ottensen
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Niendorfer TSV 1.45 — Teutonia Ottensen 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 25.3% · Over 2.5 74.7%); BTTS Yes (Yes 57.8% · No 42.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.8% · No 42.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.2%)

The decision block shows no default bet: no tracked line clears the headline minimum +EV threshold at the best prices we have (a leg can still show small +EV below that bar). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Best Bet + Reason

Skip unless odds move — the engine sees no line clearing the +EV gate.

Treat this page as a read-only diagnostic: totals/BTTS structure can be informative even when the honest answer is to wait.

Re-check after material price moves; edges appear and disappear with liquidity.

FAQ

Is the most likely correct score still relevant?

As context only: it is still a low absolute probability tail outcome (often in the single digits, sometimes low teens). It does not override the “no headline +EV” stance — treat score bets as fun-sized if you play them at all.

What do the grey “lean” labels mean then?

They summarise where the model tilts (e.g. Under 2.5 or BTTS No) without claiming a positive economic edge. Use them as context; size to zero unless you deliberately accept discretionary risk.

Should I still read the 1X2 card?

Yes — it shows whether any winner price clears value. Here it often explains why there is no headline: probabilities can be clustered while prices already embed that uncertainty.

Why is there no “best bet” on this page?

The headline engine uses a minimum +EV threshold (e.g. 2%) for a default pick. A line can still show tiny +EV that fails that bar — we still call it no default bet so readers do not over-size thin edges.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 17, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Oberliga - Hamburg Oberliga - Hamburg — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 ETSV Hamburg 34 26 5 3 83
2 Eimsbütteler TV 34 24 6 4 78
3 Tus Dassendorf 34 24 4 6 76
4 Victoria Hamburg 34 18 10 6 64
5 Paloma 34 18 7 9 61
6 HT16 34 18 3 13 57
7 Teutonia Ottensen 34 17 1 16 52
8 Süderelbe 34 15 6 13 51
9 Niendorfer TSV 34 14 9 12 50
10 Sasel 34 14 8 12 50
11 Harksheide 34 14 3 17 45
12 Buchholz 34 14 2 18 44
13 HEBC 34 10 8 16 38
14 Vorwärts-Wacker 04 34 11 5 18 38
15 Nikola Tesla 34 11 4 19 37
16 Türkiye 34 7 8 19 29
17 Halstenbek-Rellingen 34 3 3 29 12
18 Curslack-Neuengamme 34 2 2 30 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 ETSV Hamburg 34 126 27 +99 83
2 Tus Dassendorf 34 101 34 +67 76
3 Eimsbütteler TV 34 101 44 +57 78
4 Sasel 34 91 88 +3 50
5 Buchholz 34 87 80 +7 44
6 HT16 34 85 85 0 57
7 Paloma 34 84 50 +34 61
8 Victoria Hamburg 34 83 48 +35 64
9 Niendorfer TSV 34 75 57 +18 50
10 Süderelbe 34 72 64 +8 51
11 Nikola Tesla 34 70 95 -25 37
12 Harksheide 34 65 92 -27 45
13 Vorwärts-Wacker 04 34 62 85 -23 38
14 Türkiye 34 59 106 -47 29
15 Teutonia Ottensen 34 57 66 -9 52
16 HEBC 34 48 66 -18 38
17 Curslack-Neuengamme 34 46 162 -116 8
18 Halstenbek-Rellingen 34 44 107 -63 12
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