Statistics / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Nordost / ZFC Meuselwitz vs Luckenwalde

ZFC Meuselwitz vs Luckenwalde Statistics & Analysis

ZFC Meuselwitz ZFC Meuselwitz
May 16, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Luckenwalde Luckenwalde
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 ZFC Meuselwitz Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 22:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1650339

Closing Odds 2.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · ZFC Meuselwitz 1–1 Luckenwalde
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices ZFC Meuselwitz (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
ZFC Meuselwitz (1X2) 41.8 39.0 +2.8
Draw (1X2) 25.7 26.4 -0.8
Luckenwalde (1X2) 32.6 34.6 -2.0
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 60.9 -10.3
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 39.1 +10.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.1%. The difference — about 10.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
ZFC Meuselwitz (1X2) 2.28 2.28 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.36 3.36 0.0
Luckenwalde (1X2) 2.57 2.57 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.53 1.53 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.38 2.38 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Regionalliga - Nordost
  • Fixture: ZFC Meuselwitz vs Luckenwalde
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): ZFC Meuselwitz 1.45 — Luckenwalde 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 39.9% · Probability edge: +9.5 pts · Est. EV: +21.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.6% · No 51.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Regionalliga - Nordost Regionalliga - Nordost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lokomotive Leipzig 34 23 3 8 72
2 FC Carl Zeiss Jena 34 22 6 6 72
3 FSV Zwickau 34 19 7 8 64
4 Hallescher FC 34 19 6 9 63
5 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 34 17 10 7 61
6 Altglienicke 34 14 11 9 53
7 Chemnitzer FC 34 14 9 11 51
8 BFC Preussen 34 14 8 12 50
9 Magdeburg II 34 15 4 15 49
10 Luckenwalde 34 11 10 13 43
11 SV Babelsberg 03 34 11 8 15 41
12 BFC Dynamo 34 10 10 14 40
13 BSG Chemie Leipzig 34 12 4 18 40
14 Hertha BSC U21 34 11 7 16 40
15 Greifswalder FC 34 9 11 14 38
16 ZFC Meuselwitz 34 8 9 17 33
17 Eilenburg 34 4 11 19 23
18 Hertha Zehlendorf 34 2 8 24 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 34 68 47 +21 61
2 SV Babelsberg 03 34 67 65 +2 41
3 Lokomotive Leipzig 34 65 30 +35 72
4 FC Carl Zeiss Jena 34 65 35 +30 72
5 Hallescher FC 34 63 36 +27 63
6 Magdeburg II 34 61 55 +6 49
7 Chemnitzer FC 34 56 52 +4 51
8 FSV Zwickau 34 52 44 +8 64
9 Altglienicke 34 50 40 +10 53
10 BFC Preussen 34 50 55 -5 50
11 Hertha BSC U21 34 46 60 -14 40
12 BFC Dynamo 34 45 50 -5 40
13 ZFC Meuselwitz 34 44 61 -17 33
14 BSG Chemie Leipzig 34 43 49 -6 40
15 Greifswalder FC 34 40 45 -5 38
16 Luckenwalde 34 36 45 -9 43
17 Eilenburg 34 35 68 -33 23
18 Hertha Zehlendorf 34 30 79 -49 14