Statistics / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Nordost / Hertha BSC II vs Altglienicke

Hertha BSC II vs Altglienicke Statistics & Analysis

Hertha BSC II Hertha BSC II
May 08, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Altglienicke Altglienicke
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hertha BSC II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - Nordost
  • Fixture: Hertha BSC II vs Altglienicke
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Hertha BSC II 1.45 — Altglienicke 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 51.2% · Implied: 36.4% · Probability edge: +14.8 pts · Est. EV: +31.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.8% · No 51.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary angle highlighted on the page: BTTS No.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

When several markets sit near +EV, keep stakes small — correlation means edges do not add cleanly.

FAQ

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 17, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Back to Statistics
Regionalliga - Nordost Regionalliga - Nordost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lokomotive Leipzig 34 23 3 8 72
2 FC Carl Zeiss Jena 34 22 6 6 72
3 FSV Zwickau 34 19 7 8 64
4 Hallescher FC 34 19 6 9 63
5 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 34 17 10 7 61
6 Altglienicke 34 14 11 9 53
7 Chemnitzer FC 34 14 9 11 51
8 BFC Preussen 34 14 8 12 50
9 Magdeburg II 34 15 4 15 49
10 Luckenwalde 34 11 10 13 43
11 SV Babelsberg 03 34 11 8 15 41
12 BFC Dynamo 34 10 10 14 40
13 BSG Chemie Leipzig 34 12 4 18 40
14 Hertha BSC U21 34 11 7 16 40
15 Greifswalder FC 34 9 11 14 38
16 ZFC Meuselwitz 34 8 9 17 33
17 Eilenburg 34 4 11 19 23
18 Hertha Zehlendorf 34 2 8 24 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 34 68 47 +21 61
2 SV Babelsberg 03 34 67 65 +2 41
3 Lokomotive Leipzig 34 65 30 +35 72
4 FC Carl Zeiss Jena 34 65 35 +30 72
5 Hallescher FC 34 63 36 +27 63
6 Magdeburg II 34 61 55 +6 49
7 Chemnitzer FC 34 56 52 +4 51
8 FSV Zwickau 34 52 44 +8 64
9 Altglienicke 34 50 40 +10 53
10 BFC Preussen 34 50 55 -5 50
11 Hertha BSC U21 34 46 60 -14 40
12 BFC Dynamo 34 45 50 -5 40
13 ZFC Meuselwitz 34 44 61 -17 33
14 BSG Chemie Leipzig 34 43 49 -6 40
15 Greifswalder FC 34 40 45 -5 38
16 Luckenwalde 34 36 45 -9 43
17 Eilenburg 34 35 68 -33 23
18 Hertha Zehlendorf 34 30 79 -49 14
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