Statistics / Football / Italy. Campionato Primavera - 1 / Monza U20 vs Parma U20

Monza U20 vs Parma U20 Statistics & Analysis

Monza U20 Monza U20
May 16, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 48%
Parma U20 Parma U20
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Monza U20 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 0-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1544909

Closing Odds 1.77
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Monza U20 0–0 Parma U20
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Monza U20 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Monza U20 (1X2) by about 18.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Monza U20 (1X2) 41.8 22.9 +18.8
Draw (1X2) 25.7 24.7 +1.0
Parma U20 (1X2) 32.6 52.4 -19.8
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 53.3 -2.7
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 46.7 +2.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Monza U20 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.9%. The difference — about 18.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Monza U20 (1X2) 4.04 4.04 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.75 3.75 0.0
Parma U20 (1X2) 1.77 1.77 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.77 1.77 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.02 2.02 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Campionato Primavera - 1
  • Fixture: Monza U20 vs Parma U20
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Monza U20 1.45 — Parma U20 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 57.0% · Over 2.5 43.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 51.3% · No 48.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 51.3% · No 48.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (12.7%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Campionato Primavera - 1 Campionato Primavera - 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Fiorentina U20 38 19 11 8 68
2 Parma U20 38 19 11 8 68
3 Cesena U20 38 19 10 9 67
4 Roma U20 38 17 12 9 63
5 Bologna U20 38 17 11 10 62
6 Internazionale U20 38 16 11 11 59
7 Atalanta U20 38 14 15 9 57
8 Juventus U20 38 14 13 11 55
9 Lecce U20 38 14 12 12 54
10 Genoa U20 38 12 14 12 50
11 Milan U20 38 11 16 11 49
12 Hellas Verona U20 38 12 12 14 48
13 Torino U20 38 11 14 13 47
14 Lazio U20 38 12 11 15 47
15 Monza U20 38 12 11 15 47
16 Sassuolo U20 38 10 14 14 44
17 Napoli U20 38 10 10 18 40
18 Cagliari U20 38 10 9 19 39
19 Frosinone U20 38 8 11 19 35
20 Cremonese U19 38 6 6 26 24
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Fiorentina U20 38 70 48 +22 68
2 Cesena U20 38 70 52 +18 67
3 Internazionale U20 38 70 61 +9 59
4 Roma U20 38 59 35 +24 63
5 Parma U20 38 59 38 +21 68
6 Hellas Verona U20 38 55 61 -6 48
7 Bologna U20 38 54 40 +14 62
8 Atalanta U20 38 54 47 +7 57
9 Lecce U20 38 54 53 +1 54
10 Juventus U20 38 52 48 +4 55
11 Milan U20 38 51 49 +2 49
12 Sassuolo U20 38 51 58 -7 44
13 Torino U20 38 50 50 0 47
14 Genoa U20 38 49 52 -3 50
15 Cagliari U20 38 49 62 -13 39
16 Frosinone U20 38 47 76 -29 35
17 Lazio U20 38 44 51 -7 47
18 Napoli U20 38 39 55 -16 40
19 Monza U20 38 37 45 -8 47
20 Cremonese U19 38 31 64 -33 24