VfL Wolfsburg W vs Nürnberg Statistics & Analysis

VfL Wolfsburg W

May 17, 2026 - 12:00

3 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 61%

Nürnberg

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 VfL Wolfsburg W VfL Wolfsburg W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 3-1, 1-1, 2-0, 2-2 3-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 22:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2656500

Closing Odds 1.08

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result VfL Wolfsburg W win · VfL Wolfsburg W 3–1 Nürnberg

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Nürnberg (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Nürnberg (1X2) by about 26.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
VfL Wolfsburg W (1X2)	41.8	85.0	-43.2
Draw (1X2)	25.7	8.6	+17.1
Nürnberg (1X2)	32.6	6.4	+26.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Nürnberg (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 6.4%. The difference — about 26.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
VfL Wolfsburg W (1X2)	1.08	1.08
Draw (1X2)	10.73	10.73
Nürnberg (1X2)	14.29	14.29

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours VfL Wolfsburg W; market prices VfL Wolfsburg W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: VfL Wolfsburg W 1.45 xG vs Nürnberg 1.25 → VfL Wolfsburg W 41.8%
Market: VfL Wolfsburg W ~85.0% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 24.6% · Over 2.5 75.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 65.3% · No 34.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Frauen Bundesliga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	26	24	2	0	74
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	26	18	4	4	58
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	26	16	3	7	51
4	1899 Hoffenheim W	26	14	4	8	46
5	Bayer Leverkusen W	26	15	1	10	46
6	Werder Bremen W	26	12	7	7	43
7	FC Koln W	26	11	4	11	37
8	SC Freiburg W	26	10	4	12	34
9	Union Berlin W	26	8	6	12	30
10	RB Leipzig W	26	7	7	12	28
11	Nürnberg	26	6	4	16	22
12	Hamburger SV W	26	4	6	16	18
13	SGS Essen W	26	3	7	16	16
14	Carl Zeiss Jena W	26	2	5	19	11

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	26	90	9	+81	74
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	26	72	38	+34	58
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	26	65	43	+22	51
4	1899 Hoffenheim W	26	48	30	+18	46
5	Bayer Leverkusen W	26	46	36	+10	46
6	SC Freiburg W	26	44	46	-2	34
7	Werder Bremen W	26	42	36	+6	43
8	Union Berlin W	26	42	51	-9	30
9	RB Leipzig W	26	39	48	-9	28
10	FC Koln W	26	36	37	-1	37
11	Nürnberg	26	33	61	-28	22
12	Hamburger SV W	26	26	57	-31	18
13	SGS Essen W	26	22	63	-41	16
14	Carl Zeiss Jena W	26	22	72	-50	11