Statistics / Football / Germany. Frauen Bundesliga / SGS Essen W vs SC Freiburg W

SGS Essen W vs SC Freiburg W Statistics & Analysis

SGS Essen W SGS Essen W
May 17, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
SC Freiburg W SC Freiburg W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 SGS Essen W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 0-1, 1-3 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 21:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1511584

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · SGS Essen W 1–1 SC Freiburg W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices SGS Essen W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on SGS Essen W (1X2) by about 14.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
SGS Essen W (1X2) 41.8 27.0 +14.8
Draw (1X2) 25.7 23.6 +2.1
SC Freiburg W (1X2) 32.6 49.4 -16.9
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 55.5 -4.9
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 44.5 +4.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on SGS Essen W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.0%. The difference — about 14.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
SGS Essen W (1X2) 3.39 3.39 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.88 3.88 0.0
SC Freiburg W (1X2) 1.85 1.85 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.69 1.69 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.11 2.11 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Frauen Bundesliga
  • Fixture: SGS Essen W vs SC Freiburg W
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): SGS Essen W 1.45 — SC Freiburg W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 43.7% · Probability edge: +5.7 pts · Est. EV: +13.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.8% · No 55.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Frauen Bundesliga Frauen Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bayern Munich W 26 24 2 0 74
2 VfL Wolfsburg W 26 18 4 4 58
3 Eintracht Frankfurt W 26 16 3 7 51
4 1899 Hoffenheim W 26 14 4 8 46
5 Bayer Leverkusen W 26 15 1 10 46
6 Werder Bremen W 26 12 7 7 43
7 FC Koln W 26 11 4 11 37
8 SC Freiburg W 26 10 4 12 34
9 Union Berlin W 26 8 6 12 30
10 RB Leipzig W 26 7 7 12 28
11 Nürnberg 26 6 4 16 22
12 Hamburger SV W 26 4 6 16 18
13 SGS Essen W 26 3 7 16 16
14 Carl Zeiss Jena W 26 2 5 19 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bayern Munich W 26 90 9 +81 74
2 VfL Wolfsburg W 26 72 38 +34 58
3 Eintracht Frankfurt W 26 65 43 +22 51
4 1899 Hoffenheim W 26 48 30 +18 46
5 Bayer Leverkusen W 26 46 36 +10 46
6 SC Freiburg W 26 44 46 -2 34
7 Werder Bremen W 26 42 36 +6 43
8 Union Berlin W 26 42 51 -9 30
9 RB Leipzig W 26 39 48 -9 28
10 FC Koln W 26 36 37 -1 37
11 Nürnberg 26 33 61 -28 22
12 Hamburger SV W 26 26 57 -31 18
13 SGS Essen W 26 22 63 -41 16
14 Carl Zeiss Jena W 26 22 72 -50 11
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