Eintracht Frankfurt W vs Union Berlin W Statistics & Analysis

Eintracht Frankfurt W

May 17, 2026 - 12:00

4 1.45

2 1.25

xG Accuracy: 40%

Union Berlin W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Eintracht Frankfurt W Eintracht Frankfurt W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 20:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3578237

Closing Odds 1.32

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Eintracht Frankfurt W win · Eintracht Frankfurt W 4–2 Union Berlin W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Union Berlin W (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Union Berlin W (1X2) by about 19.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Eintracht Frankfurt W (1X2)	41.8	69.3	-27.6
Draw (1X2)	25.7	17.1	+8.6
Union Berlin W (1X2)	32.6	13.5	+19.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Union Berlin W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 13.5%. The difference — about 19.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Eintracht Frankfurt W (1X2)	1.32	1.32
Draw (1X2)	5.35	5.35
Union Berlin W (1X2)	6.76	6.76

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Frauen Bundesliga
Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt W vs Union Berlin W
Kickoff: 2026-05-17 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Eintracht Frankfurt W 1.45 — Union Berlin W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 27.7% · Over 2.5 72.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 70.4% · No 29.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 70.4% · No 29.6%
Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.7%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Frauen Bundesliga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	26	24	2	0	74
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	26	18	4	4	58
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	26	16	3	7	51
4	1899 Hoffenheim W	26	14	4	8	46
5	Bayer Leverkusen W	26	15	1	10	46
6	Werder Bremen W	26	12	7	7	43
7	FC Koln W	26	11	4	11	37
8	SC Freiburg W	26	10	4	12	34
9	Union Berlin W	26	8	6	12	30
10	RB Leipzig W	26	7	7	12	28
11	Nürnberg	26	6	4	16	22
12	Hamburger SV W	26	4	6	16	18
13	SGS Essen W	26	3	7	16	16
14	Carl Zeiss Jena W	26	2	5	19	11

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	26	90	9	+81	74
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	26	72	38	+34	58
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	26	65	43	+22	51
4	1899 Hoffenheim W	26	48	30	+18	46
5	Bayer Leverkusen W	26	46	36	+10	46
6	SC Freiburg W	26	44	46	-2	34
7	Werder Bremen W	26	42	36	+6	43
8	Union Berlin W	26	42	51	-9	30
9	RB Leipzig W	26	39	48	-9	28
10	FC Koln W	26	36	37	-1	37
11	Nürnberg	26	33	61	-28	22
12	Hamburger SV W	26	26	57	-31	18
13	SGS Essen W	26	22	63	-41	16
14	Carl Zeiss Jena W	26	22	72	-50	11