Hamburger SV W vs Union Berlin W Statistics & Analysis

Hamburger SV W

May 01, 2026 - 13:00

0 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 63%

Union Berlin W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Hamburger SV W Union Berlin W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 08:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2590562

Closing Odds 2.06

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Union Berlin W win · Hamburger SV W 0–1 Union Berlin W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Hamburger SV W (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Hamburger SV W (1X2) by about 12.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Hamburger SV W (1X2)	41.8	29.4	+12.4
Draw (1X2)	25.7	25.6	+0.1
Union Berlin W (1X2)	32.6	45.1	-12.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Hamburger SV W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 29.4%. The difference — about 12.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE10)	Closing (PRE1)
Hamburger SV W (1X2)	3.16	3.16
Draw (1X2)	3.63	3.63
Union Berlin W (1X2)	2.06	2.06

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Frauen Bundesliga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	26	24	2	0	74
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	26	18	4	4	58
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	26	16	3	7	51
4	1899 Hoffenheim W	26	14	4	8	46
5	Bayer Leverkusen W	26	15	1	10	46
6	Werder Bremen W	26	12	7	7	43
7	FC Koln W	26	11	4	11	37
8	SC Freiburg W	26	10	4	12	34
9	Union Berlin W	26	8	6	12	30
10	RB Leipzig W	26	7	7	12	28
11	Nürnberg	26	6	4	16	22
12	Hamburger SV W	26	4	6	16	18
13	SGS Essen W	26	3	7	16	16
14	Carl Zeiss Jena W	26	2	5	19	11

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	26	90	9	+81	74
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	26	72	38	+34	58
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	26	65	43	+22	51
4	1899 Hoffenheim W	26	48	30	+18	46
5	Bayer Leverkusen W	26	46	36	+10	46
6	SC Freiburg W	26	44	46	-2	34
7	Werder Bremen W	26	42	36	+6	43
8	Union Berlin W	26	42	51	-9	30
9	RB Leipzig W	26	39	48	-9	28
10	FC Koln W	26	36	37	-1	37
11	Nürnberg	26	33	61	-28	22
12	Hamburger SV W	26	26	57	-31	18
13	SGS Essen W	26	22	63	-41	16
14	Carl Zeiss Jena W	26	22	72	-50	11