Statistics / Football / Ukraine. Persha Liga / UCSA vs Nyva Ternopil

UCSA vs Nyva Ternopil Statistics & Analysis

UCSA UCSA
Jun 01, 2026 - 10:00
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Nyva Ternopil Nyva Ternopil
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 UCSA UCSA ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 22:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1653109

Closing Odds 2.86
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result UCSA win · UCSA 3–0 Nyva Ternopil
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices UCSA (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 11.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
UCSA (1X2) 41.8 37.2 +4.5
Draw (1X2) 25.7 31.1 -5.4
Nyva Ternopil (1X2) 32.6 31.7 +0.9
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 39.5 +11.1
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 60.5 -11.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 50.6% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.5%. The difference — about 11.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
UCSA (1X2) 2.39 2.39 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.86 2.86 0.0
Nyva Ternopil (1X2) 2.81 2.81 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.31 2.31 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.51 1.51 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Persha Liga
  • Fixture: UCSA vs Nyva Ternopil
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-01 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): UCSA 1.45 — Nyva Ternopil 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 50.6% · Implied: 39.8% · Probability edge: +10.8 pts · Est. EV: +21.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 27.7% · No 72.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (14.1%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Persha Liga Persha Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bukovyna 30 26 3 1 81
2 Chornomorets 30 19 8 3 65
3 Livyi Bereh 30 19 6 5 63
4 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 30 16 5 9 53
5 Inhulets 30 12 10 8 46
6 Prykarpattia 30 9 10 11 37
7 Metal Kharkiv 30 10 7 13 37
8 Probiy Horodenka 30 10 6 14 36
9 Yarud Mariupol' 30 9 9 12 36
10 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 30 10 6 14 36
11 UCSA 30 10 6 14 36
12 Nyva Ternopil 30 8 10 12 34
13 Chernihiv 30 8 7 15 31
14 Vorskla Poltava 30 7 9 14 30
15 Podillya Khmelnytskyi 30 4 9 17 21
16 Metalurh Zaporizhya 30 4 7 19 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bukovyna 30 74 21 +53 81
2 Livyi Bereh 30 50 21 +29 63
3 Chornomorets 30 44 20 +24 65
4 Inhulets 30 41 32 +9 46
5 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 30 37 38 -1 36
6 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 30 36 28 +8 53
7 Prykarpattia 30 33 33 0 37
8 Yarud Mariupol' 30 31 32 -1 36
9 Metal Kharkiv 30 31 35 -4 37
10 Chernihiv 30 30 36 -6 31
11 UCSA 30 30 40 -10 36
12 Probiy Horodenka 30 29 37 -8 36
13 Nyva Ternopil 30 24 34 -10 34
14 Vorskla Poltava 30 23 36 -13 30
15 Podillya Khmelnytskyi 30 20 45 -25 21
16 Metalurh Zaporizhya 30 16 61 -45 19
Persha Liga Ukraine. Persha Liga Predictions