Metal Kharkiv vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi Statistics & Analysis

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

• League: Persha Liga
• Fixture: Metal Kharkiv vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi
• Kickoff: 2026-05-09 14:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
• xG (showing): Metal Kharkiv 1.45 — Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
• Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
• Model: 63.1% · Implied: 55.8% · Probability edge: +7.3 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
• BTTS (model): Yes 36.9% · No 63.1%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Best current value angle on the board — same leg as the “Best +EV” hero when Primary rules are not met: BTTS No.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

May 17, 2026 (UTC)