Statistics / Football / Russia. Premier League / FC Rostov vs Zenit

FC Rostov vs Zenit Statistics & Analysis

FC Rostov FC Rostov
May 17, 2026 - 15:00
0 0.82
1 0.84
xG Accuracy: 76%
Zenit Zenit
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Zenit ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 17:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1620511

Closing Odds 1.43
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Zenit win · FC Rostov 0–1 Zenit
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices FC Rostov (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 19.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FC Rostov (1X2) 30.5 11.2 +19.2
Draw (1X2) 38.0 22.0 +16.0
Zenit (1X2) 31.5 66.8 -35.3
Over 2.5 goals 23.2 43.0 -19.8
Under 2.5 goals 76.8 57.0 +19.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 76.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 57.0%. The difference — about 19.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FC Rostov (1X2) 8.5 8.5 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.35 4.35 0.0
Zenit (1X2) 1.43 1.43 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.23 2.23 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.68 1.68 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Draw; market prices Zenit instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: FC Rostov 0.82 xG vs Zenit 0.84 → Draw 38.0%
  • Market: Zenit ~22.0% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 76.8% · Over 2.5 23.2%); BTTS No (Yes 33.5% · No 66.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zenit 30 20 8 2 68
2 FC Krasnodar 30 20 6 4 66
3 Lokomotiv 30 14 11 5 53
4 Spartak Moscow 30 15 7 8 52
5 CSKA Moscow 30 15 6 9 51
6 Baltika 30 11 13 6 46
7 Dynamo 30 12 9 9 45
8 Rubin 30 11 10 9 43
9 Akhmat 30 9 10 11 37
10 FC Rostov 30 8 9 13 33
11 Krylia Sovetov 30 8 8 14 32
12 FC Orenburg 30 7 8 15 29
13 Akron 30 6 9 15 27
14 Makhachkala 30 5 11 14 26
15 Nizhny Novgorod 30 6 5 19 23
16 FC Sochi 30 6 4 20 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Krasnodar 30 60 23 +37 66
2 Lokomotiv 30 54 39 +15 53
3 Zenit 30 53 19 +34 68
4 Dynamo 30 51 40 +11 45
5 Spartak Moscow 30 47 39 +8 52
6 CSKA Moscow 30 44 33 +11 51
7 Baltika 30 38 21 +17 46
8 Akhmat 30 35 39 -4 37
9 Krylia Sovetov 30 35 50 -15 32
10 Akron 30 35 53 -18 27
11 Rubin 30 29 30 -1 43
12 FC Orenburg 30 29 44 -15 29
13 FC Sochi 30 29 60 -31 22
14 Nizhny Novgorod 30 26 50 -24 23
15 FC Rostov 30 25 32 -7 33
16 Makhachkala 30 19 37 -18 26
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC Krasnodar 30 27.6 15.2 +12.4 66
2 Zenit 30 25.0 14.1 +10.9 68
3 Lokomotiv 30 26.7 20.4 +6.3 53
4 Dynamo 30 23.7 18.5 +5.2 45
5 Spartak Moscow 30 22.8 19.0 +3.8 52
6 Baltika 30 22.2 18.6 +3.6 46
7 Rubin 30 19.1 16.8 +2.3 43
8 FC Rostov 30 19.1 17.2 +1.9 33
9 Akhmat 30 20.2 19.3 +0.9 37
10 CSKA Moscow 30 23.4 24.7 -1.3 51
11 Makhachkala 30 15.7 17.1 -1.4 26
12 Akron 30 21.8 24.9 -3.1 27
13 FC Orenburg 30 18.4 23.8 -5.4 29
14 Nizhny Novgorod 30 16.7 25.0 -8.3 23
15 Krylia Sovetov 30 12.9 26.0 -13.1 32
16 FC Sochi 30 12.1 27.1 -15.0 22