Statistics / Football / Netherlands. Tweede Divisie / ACV vs Quick Boys

ACV vs Quick Boys Statistics & Analysis

ACV ACV
May 09, 2026 - 12:30
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Quick Boys Quick Boys
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 ACV Quick Boys ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 0-1, 1-3 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1539092

Closing Odds 1.49
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Quick Boys win · ACV 1–2 Quick Boys
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices ACV (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on ACV (1X2) by about 22.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
ACV (1X2) 41.8 18.9 +22.8
Draw (1X2) 25.7 20.3 +5.4
Quick Boys (1X2) 32.6 60.8 -28.2
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 59.6 -9.0
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 40.4 +9.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on ACV (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.9%. The difference — about 22.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
ACV (1X2) 4.78 4.78 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.46 4.46 0.0
Quick Boys (1X2) 1.49 1.49 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.55 1.55 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.29 2.29 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tweede Divisie
  • Fixture: ACV vs Quick Boys
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): ACV 1.45 — Quick Boys 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 41.6% · Probability edge: +7.8 pts · Est. EV: +13.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 61.2% · No 38.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.8%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Tweede Divisie Tweede Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Quick Boys 34 19 10 5 66
2 De Treffers 34 18 9 7 63
3 Hoek 34 19 6 9 63
4 Rijnsburgse Boys 34 16 8 10 56
5 HHC 34 17 5 12 56
6 Spakenburg 34 16 8 10 56
7 Katwijk 34 15 7 12 52
8 Almere City II 34 15 5 14 50
9 Kozakken Boys 34 13 8 13 47
10 Sparta Rotterdam II 34 12 9 13 45
11 AFC Amsterdam 34 12 9 13 45
12 Barendrecht 34 13 4 17 43
13 RKAV Volendam 34 13 3 18 42
14 GVVV Veenendaal 34 12 6 16 42
15 Koninklijke HFC 34 12 3 19 39
16 Ijsselmeervogels 34 9 4 21 31
17 Excelsior Maassluis 34 8 7 19 31
18 ACV 34 7 9 18 30
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rijnsburgse Boys 34 76 55 +21 56
2 Spakenburg 34 72 60 +12 56
3 Sparta Rotterdam II 34 71 73 -2 45
4 Almere City II 34 70 62 +8 50
5 Quick Boys 34 69 35 +34 66
6 De Treffers 34 64 37 +27 63
7 Barendrecht 34 62 84 -22 43
8 Hoek 34 60 37 +23 63
9 Katwijk 34 60 55 +5 52
10 HHC 34 58 44 +14 56
11 GVVV Veenendaal 34 52 67 -15 42
12 RKAV Volendam 34 50 62 -12 42
13 ACV 34 48 71 -23 30
14 Kozakken Boys 34 47 55 -8 47
15 AFC Amsterdam 34 46 54 -8 45
16 Ijsselmeervogels 34 46 65 -19 31
17 Excelsior Maassluis 34 39 58 -19 31
18 Koninklijke HFC 34 33 49 -16 39
Tweede Divisie Netherlands. Tweede Divisie Predictions