Statistics / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - Mitte / Velden vs Gurten

Velden vs Gurten Statistics & Analysis

Velden Velden
May 08, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Gurten Gurten
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Velden Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 05:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1555903

Closing Odds 1.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Velden 0–0 Gurten
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Velden (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Velden (1X2) by about 16.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Velden (1X2) 41.8 25.1 +16.7
Draw (1X2) 25.7 24.5 +1.2
Gurten (1X2) 32.6 50.5 -17.9
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 54.3 -3.7
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 45.7 +3.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Velden (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.1%. The difference — about 16.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Velden (1X2) 3.58 3.58 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.67 3.67 0.0
Gurten (1X2) 1.78 1.78 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.69 1.69 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.01 2.01 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Regionalliga - Mitte
  • Fixture: Velden vs Gurten
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Velden 1.45 — Gurten 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 50.6% · Over 2.5 49.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 57.1% · No 42.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.1% · No 42.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Regionalliga - Mitte Regionalliga - Mitte — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Voitsberg 30 26 2 2 80
2 Gurten 30 20 4 6 64
3 Oedt 30 15 10 5 55
4 LASK Juniors 30 15 6 9 51
5 Deutschlandsberger SC 30 14 9 7 51
6 Kalsdorf 30 15 4 11 49
7 Velden 30 13 7 10 46
8 SV Lafnitz 30 12 6 12 42
9 Wallern / Marienkirchen 30 12 4 14 40
10 Weiz 30 10 9 11 39
11 Wolfsberger AC II 30 9 7 14 34
12 Wohnbau Dietach 30 9 5 16 32
13 Gleisdorf 09 30 7 9 14 30
14 Treibach 30 7 3 20 24
15 Ried II 30 7 4 19 25
16 St. Anna 30 2 5 23 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Voitsberg 30 113 21 +92 80
2 LASK Juniors 30 66 44 +22 51
3 Oedt 30 62 32 +30 55
4 Weiz 30 61 66 -5 39
5 Deutschlandsberger SC 30 60 52 +8 51
6 Gurten 30 59 28 +31 64
7 Kalsdorf 30 59 53 +6 49
8 SV Lafnitz 30 55 60 -5 42
9 Velden 30 50 47 +3 46
10 Wolfsberger AC II 30 45 46 -1 34
11 Wallern / Marienkirchen 30 44 51 -7 40
12 Gleisdorf 09 30 43 72 -29 30
13 Ried II 30 41 72 -31 25
14 Treibach 30 35 71 -36 24
15 Wohnbau Dietach 30 33 57 -24 32
16 St. Anna 30 22 76 -54 11