Espanyol W vs Sevilla W Statistics & Analysis

Espanyol W

May 31, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 48%

Sevilla W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Espanyol W Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1483459

Closing Odds 2.48

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Espanyol W 0–0 Sevilla W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Espanyol W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Espanyol W (1X2) by about 5.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Espanyol W (1X2)	41.8	35.9	+5.9
Draw (1X2)	25.7	29.6	-4.0
Sevilla W (1X2)	32.6	34.5	-1.9
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	47.4	+3.2
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	52.6	-3.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Espanyol W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 35.9%. The difference — about 5.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Espanyol W (1X2)	2.48	2.48
Draw (1X2)	3.0	3.0
Sevilla W (1X2)	2.58	2.58
Over 2.5 goals	1.95	1.95
Under 2.5 goals	1.76	1.76

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera División Femenina
Fixture: Espanyol W vs Sevilla W
Kickoff: 2026-05-31 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Espanyol W 1.45 — Sevilla W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 50.6% · Implied: 46.7% · Probability edge: +3.9 pts · Est. EV: +7.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 42.8% · No 57.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera División Femenina — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Barcelona W	30	29	0	1	87
2	Real Madrid W	30	23	3	4	72
3	Real Sociedad W	30	20	6	4	66
4	Granad. Tenerife W	30	14	12	4	54
5	Atletico Madrid W	30	14	9	7	51
6	Granada	30	13	6	11	45
7	Athletic Club W	30	12	8	10	44
8	Sevilla W	30	12	5	13	41
9	FC Levante Badalona	30	10	9	11	39
10	Madrid CFF W	30	11	4	15	37
11	Espanyol W	30	7	10	13	31
12	Deportivo de La Coruña W	30	8	7	15	31
13	Eibar W	30	8	4	18	28
14	Edf Logrono W	30	4	9	17	21
15	Alhama	30	3	5	22	14
16	Levante W	30	2	3	25	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Barcelona W	30	130	9	+121	87
2	Real Madrid W	30	65	18	+47	72
3	Atletico Madrid W	30	63	39	+24	51
4	Real Sociedad W	30	61	27	+34	66
5	Granad. Tenerife W	30	49	22	+27	54
6	Madrid CFF W	30	41	59	-18	37
7	Granada	30	36	42	-6	45
8	Athletic Club W	30	35	44	-9	44
9	Deportivo de La Coruña W	30	34	54	-20	31
10	Sevilla W	30	33	46	-13	41
11	Edf Logrono W	30	29	54	-25	21
12	Espanyol W	30	28	44	-16	31
13	FC Levante Badalona	30	28	46	-18	39
14	Alhama	30	23	78	-55	14
15	Eibar W	30	18	47	-29	28
16	Levante W	30	18	62	-44	9