Statistics / Football / Spain. Primera División Femenina / Eibar W vs Edf Logrono W

Eibar W vs Edf Logrono W Statistics & Analysis

Eibar W Eibar W
May 31, 2026 - 10:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Edf Logrono W Edf Logrono W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Eibar W Eibar W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 00:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3087603

Closing Odds 3.12
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Eibar W win · Eibar W 2–1 Edf Logrono W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Edf Logrono W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 7.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Eibar W (1X2) 41.8 43.0 -1.3
Draw (1X2) 25.7 28.7 -3.0
Edf Logrono W (1X2) 32.6 28.3 +4.3
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 43.6 +7.0
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 56.4 -7.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 50.6% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 43.6%. The difference — about 7.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Eibar W (1X2) 2.05 2.05 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.08 3.08 0.0
Edf Logrono W (1X2) 3.12 3.12 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.08 2.08 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.61 1.61 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División Femenina
  • Fixture: Eibar W vs Edf Logrono W
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-31 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Eibar W 1.45 — Edf Logrono W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 50.6% · Implied: 42.7% · Probability edge: +7.9 pts · Est. EV: +17.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 21.6% · No 78.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Femenina Primera División Femenina — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Barcelona W 30 29 0 1 87
2 Real Madrid W 30 23 3 4 72
3 Real Sociedad W 30 20 6 4 66
4 Granad. Tenerife W 30 14 12 4 54
5 Atletico Madrid W 30 14 9 7 51
6 Granada 30 13 6 11 45
7 Athletic Club W 30 12 8 10 44
8 Sevilla W 30 12 5 13 41
9 FC Levante Badalona 30 10 9 11 39
10 Madrid CFF W 30 11 4 15 37
11 Espanyol W 30 7 10 13 31
12 Deportivo de La Coruña W 30 8 7 15 31
13 Eibar W 30 8 4 18 28
14 Edf Logrono W 30 4 9 17 21
15 Alhama 30 3 5 22 14
16 Levante W 30 2 3 25 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona W 30 130 9 +121 87
2 Real Madrid W 30 65 18 +47 72
3 Atletico Madrid W 30 63 39 +24 51
4 Real Sociedad W 30 61 27 +34 66
5 Granad. Tenerife W 30 49 22 +27 54
6 Madrid CFF W 30 41 59 -18 37
7 Granada 30 36 42 -6 45
8 Athletic Club W 30 35 44 -9 44
9 Deportivo de La Coruña W 30 34 54 -20 31
10 Sevilla W 30 33 46 -13 41
11 Edf Logrono W 30 29 54 -25 21
12 Espanyol W 30 28 44 -16 31
13 FC Levante Badalona 30 28 46 -18 39
14 Alhama 30 23 78 -55 14
15 Eibar W 30 18 47 -29 28
16 Levante W 30 18 62 -44 9
Primera División Femenina Spain. Primera División Femenina Predictions