Statistics / Football / Spain. Primera División Femenina / Granad. Tenerife W vs Barcelona W

Granad. Tenerife W vs Barcelona W Statistics & Analysis

Granad. Tenerife W Granad. Tenerife W
May 10, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Barcelona W Barcelona W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Granad. Tenerife W Barcelona W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-2, 1-2, 0-3, 1-3, 0-1 1-3 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 21:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3076959

Closing Odds 1.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Barcelona W win · Granad. Tenerife W 1–3 Barcelona W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Granad. Tenerife W (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Granad. Tenerife W (1X2) by about 36.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Granad. Tenerife W (1X2) 41.8 5.0 +36.8
Draw (1X2) 25.7 7.8 +17.9
Barcelona W (1X2) 32.6 87.2 -54.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Granad. Tenerife W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 5.0%. The difference — about 36.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Granad. Tenerife W (1X2) 18.05 18.05 0.0
Draw (1X2) 11.49 11.49 0.0
Barcelona W (1X2) 1.03 1.03 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Granad. Tenerife W; market prices Barcelona W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Granad. Tenerife W 1.45 xG vs Barcelona W 1.25 → Granad. Tenerife W 41.8%
  • Market: Barcelona W ~5.0% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 32.1% · Over 2.5 67.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 67.8% · No 32.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Femenina Primera División Femenina — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Barcelona W 30 29 0 1 87
2 Real Madrid W 30 23 3 4 72
3 Real Sociedad W 30 20 6 4 66
4 Granad. Tenerife W 30 14 12 4 54
5 Atletico Madrid W 30 14 9 7 51
6 Granada 30 13 6 11 45
7 Athletic Club W 30 12 8 10 44
8 Sevilla W 30 12 5 13 41
9 FC Levante Badalona 30 10 9 11 39
10 Madrid CFF W 30 11 4 15 37
11 Espanyol W 30 7 10 13 31
12 Deportivo de La Coruña W 30 8 7 15 31
13 Eibar W 30 8 4 18 28
14 Edf Logrono W 30 4 9 17 21
15 Alhama 30 3 5 22 14
16 Levante W 30 2 3 25 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona W 30 130 9 +121 87
2 Real Madrid W 30 65 18 +47 72
3 Atletico Madrid W 30 63 39 +24 51
4 Real Sociedad W 30 61 27 +34 66
5 Granad. Tenerife W 30 49 22 +27 54
6 Madrid CFF W 30 41 59 -18 37
7 Granada 30 36 42 -6 45
8 Athletic Club W 30 35 44 -9 44
9 Deportivo de La Coruña W 30 34 54 -20 31
10 Sevilla W 30 33 46 -13 41
11 Edf Logrono W 30 29 54 -25 21
12 Espanyol W 30 28 44 -16 31
13 FC Levante Badalona 30 28 46 -18 39
14 Alhama 30 23 78 -55 14
15 Eibar W 30 18 47 -29 28
16 Levante W 30 18 62 -44 9
Primera División Femenina Spain. Primera División Femenina Predictions