Athletic Club W vs Deportivo de La Coruña W Statistics & Analysis

Athletic Club W

May 09, 2026 - 16:00

0 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 63%

Deportivo de La Coruña W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Athletic Club W Deportivo de La Coruña W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 10:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3041052

Closing Odds 1.61

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Deportivo de La Coruña W win · Athletic Club W 0–1 Deportivo de La Coruña W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Deportivo de La Coruña W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Deportivo de La Coruña W (1X2) by about 13.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Athletic Club W (1X2)	41.8	56.9	-15.2
Draw (1X2)	25.7	24.4	+1.3
Deportivo de La Coruña W (1X2)	32.6	18.7	+13.9
Over 2.5 goals	50.6	53.0	-2.5
Under 2.5 goals	49.4	47.0	+2.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Deportivo de La Coruña W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.7%. The difference — about 13.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Athletic Club W (1X2)	1.61	1.61
Draw (1X2)	3.76	3.76
Deportivo de La Coruña W (1X2)	4.91	4.91
Over 2.5 goals	1.77	1.77
Under 2.5 goals	2.0	2.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Primera División Femenina
Fixture: Athletic Club W vs Deportivo de La Coruña W
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Athletic Club W 1.45 — Deportivo de La Coruña W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 45.8% · Over 2.5 54.2%); BTTS No (Yes 44.3% · No 55.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 44.3% · No 55.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera División Femenina — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Barcelona W	30	29	0	1	87
2	Real Madrid W	30	23	3	4	72
3	Real Sociedad W	30	20	6	4	66
4	Granad. Tenerife W	30	14	12	4	54
5	Atletico Madrid W	30	14	9	7	51
6	Granada	30	13	6	11	45
7	Athletic Club W	30	12	8	10	44
8	Sevilla W	30	12	5	13	41
9	FC Levante Badalona	30	10	9	11	39
10	Madrid CFF W	30	11	4	15	37
11	Espanyol W	30	7	10	13	31
12	Deportivo de La Coruña W	30	8	7	15	31
13	Eibar W	30	8	4	18	28
14	Edf Logrono W	30	4	9	17	21
15	Alhama	30	3	5	22	14
16	Levante W	30	2	3	25	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Barcelona W	30	130	9	+121	87
2	Real Madrid W	30	65	18	+47	72
3	Atletico Madrid W	30	63	39	+24	51
4	Real Sociedad W	30	61	27	+34	66
5	Granad. Tenerife W	30	49	22	+27	54
6	Madrid CFF W	30	41	59	-18	37
7	Granada	30	36	42	-6	45
8	Athletic Club W	30	35	44	-9	44
9	Deportivo de La Coruña W	30	34	54	-20	31
10	Sevilla W	30	33	46	-13	41
11	Edf Logrono W	30	29	54	-25	21
12	Espanyol W	30	28	44	-16	31
13	FC Levante Badalona	30	28	46	-18	39
14	Alhama	30	23	78	-55	14
15	Eibar W	30	18	47	-29	28
16	Levante W	30	18	62	-44	9