Statistics / Football / Andorra. 1a Divisió / Penya Encarnada vs Ranger's

Penya Encarnada vs Ranger's Statistics & Analysis

Penya Encarnada Penya Encarnada
May 10, 2026 - 09:00
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Ranger's Ranger's
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Penya Encarnada Ranger's ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 20:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2276262

Closing Odds 1.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ranger's win · Penya Encarnada 1–2 Ranger's
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Penya Encarnada (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Penya Encarnada (1X2) by about 28.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Penya Encarnada (1X2) 41.8 13.6 +28.1
Draw (1X2) 25.7 21.1 +4.5
Ranger's (1X2) 32.6 65.2 -32.7
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 52.5 -1.9
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 47.5 +1.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Penya Encarnada (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 13.6%. The difference — about 28.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Penya Encarnada (1X2) 6.61 6.61 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.26 4.26 0.0
Ranger's (1X2) 1.38 1.38 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.78 1.78 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.97 1.97 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Penya Encarnada; market prices Ranger's instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Penya Encarnada 1.45 xG vs Ranger's 1.25 → Penya Encarnada 41.8%
  • Market: Ranger's ~13.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 49.4% · Over 2.5 50.6%); BTTS No (Yes 40.9% · No 59.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Penya Encarnada & Ranger's!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
1a Divisió 1a Divisió — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Inter Club d'Escaldes 24 17 3 4 54
2 UE Santa Coloma 24 15 6 3 51
3 Ranger's 24 15 3 6 48
4 FC Santa Coloma 24 13 5 6 44
5 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 24 10 4 10 34
6 Penya Encarnada 24 7 3 14 24
7 Ordino 24 6 4 14 22
8 Carroi 24 4 5 15 17
9 Esperança d'Andorra 24 2 5 17 11
10 Pas de la Casa 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Inter Club d'Escaldes 24 47 24 +23 54
2 Ranger's 24 46 22 +24 48
3 UE Santa Coloma 24 45 13 +32 51
4 FC Santa Coloma 24 45 20 +25 44
5 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 24 31 26 +5 34
6 Ordino 24 27 42 -15 22
7 Penya Encarnada 24 19 41 -22 24
8 Esperança d'Andorra 24 15 47 -32 11
9 Carroi 24 15 55 -40 17
10 Pas de la Casa 3 0 6 -6 1