Statistics / Football / Andorra. 1a Divisió / Penya Encarnada vs Ranger's

Penya Encarnada vs Ranger's Statistics & Analysis

Penya Encarnada Penya Encarnada
May 10, 2026 - 09:00
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Ranger's Ranger's
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Penya Encarnada Ranger's ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1a Divisió
  • Fixture: Penya Encarnada vs Ranger's
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Penya Encarnada 1.45 — Ranger's 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Penya Encarnada
  • Model: 41.8% · Implied: 13.6% · Probability edge: +28.2 pts · Est. EV: +11.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 40.9% · No 59.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (12.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Best Bet + Reason

The engine’s headline primary is: Penya Encarnada.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 17, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Back to Statistics
1a Divisió 1a Divisió — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 UE Santa Coloma 25 16 6 3 54
2 Inter Club d'Escaldes 24 17 3 4 54
3 Ranger's 24 15 3 6 48
4 FC Santa Coloma 24 13 5 6 44
5 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 23 9 4 10 31
6 Penya Encarnada 23 7 3 13 24
7 Ordino 24 6 4 14 22
8 Carroi 25 4 6 15 18
9 Esperança d'Andorra 24 2 5 17 11
10 Pas de la Casa 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 UE Santa Coloma 25 48 13 +35 54
2 Inter Club d'Escaldes 24 47 24 +23 54
3 Ranger's 24 46 22 +24 48
4 FC Santa Coloma 24 45 20 +25 44
5 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 23 29 26 +3 31
6 Ordino 24 27 42 -15 22
7 Penya Encarnada 23 19 39 -20 24
8 Esperança d'Andorra 24 15 47 -32 11
9 Carroi 25 15 55 -40 18
10 Pas de la Casa 3 0 6 -6 1
1a Divisió Andorra. 1a Divisió Predictions
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