Statistics / Football / Slovakia. 2. liga / Liptovský Mikuláš vs Púchov

Liptovský Mikuláš vs Púchov Statistics & Analysis

Liptovský Mikuláš Liptovský Mikuláš
May 08, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Púchov Púchov
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Liptovský Mikuláš Liptovský Mikuláš ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 07:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3647209

Closing Odds 1.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Liptovský Mikuláš win · Liptovský Mikuláš 3–0 Púchov
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Púchov (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Púchov (1X2) by about 9.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Liptovský Mikuláš (1X2) 41.8 53.5 -11.7
Draw (1X2) 25.7 23.9 +1.8
Púchov (1X2) 32.6 22.6 +9.9
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 59.3 -8.7
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 40.7 +8.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Púchov (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.6%. The difference — about 9.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Liptovský Mikuláš (1X2) 1.66 1.66 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.71 3.71 0.0
Púchov (1X2) 3.92 3.92 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.54 1.54 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.24 2.24 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 2. liga
  • Fixture: Liptovský Mikuláš vs Púchov
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-08 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Liptovský Mikuláš 1.45 — Púchov 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 40.3% · Probability edge: +9.1 pts · Est. EV: +18.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.1% · No 40.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
2. liga 2. liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dukla Banská Bystrica 30 20 6 4 66
2 Lokomotíva Zvolen 30 13 10 7 49
3 Liptovský Mikuláš 30 13 9 8 48
4 Petržalka 30 14 6 10 48
5 Malženice 30 13 8 9 47
6 Pohronie 30 11 11 8 44
7 Zlaté Moravce 30 12 8 10 44
8 Inter Bratislava 30 12 6 12 42
9 Slovan Bratislava II 30 10 10 10 40
10 Šamorín 30 10 8 12 38
11 Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 30 9 8 13 35
12 Považská Bystrica 30 8 9 13 33
13 Žilina II 30 9 6 15 33
14 Slávia TU Košice 30 8 8 14 32
15 Púchov 30 6 11 13 29
16 Stará Ľubovňa 30 6 8 16 26
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dukla Banská Bystrica 30 61 25 +36 66
2 Zlaté Moravce 30 57 49 +8 44
3 Liptovský Mikuláš 30 55 47 +8 48
4 Pohronie 30 47 35 +12 44
5 Lokomotíva Zvolen 30 46 36 +10 49
6 Petržalka 30 45 31 +14 48
7 Slovan Bratislava II 30 45 48 -3 40
8 Malženice 30 44 38 +6 47
9 Šamorín 30 44 46 -2 38
10 Žilina II 30 43 59 -16 33
11 Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 30 41 52 -11 35
12 Považská Bystrica 30 38 49 -11 33
13 Slávia TU Košice 30 38 54 -16 32
14 Inter Bratislava 30 35 36 -1 42
15 Stará Ľubovňa 30 35 52 -17 26
16 Púchov 30 33 50 -17 29
2. liga Slovakia. 2. liga Predictions