Statistics / Football / Turkey. Süper Lig / Gazişehir Gaziantep vs Istanbul Basaksehir

Gazişehir Gaziantep vs Istanbul Basaksehir Statistics & Analysis

Gazişehir Gaziantep Gazişehir Gaziantep
May 16, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.49
2 1.44
xG Accuracy: 75%
Istanbul Basaksehir Istanbul Basaksehir
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Gazişehir Gaziantep Istanbul Basaksehir ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 23:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2096320

Closing Odds 1.83
AI Fair Odds 2.68
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Istanbul Basaksehir win · Gazişehir Gaziantep 1–2 Istanbul Basaksehir
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 37.3%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Gazişehir Gaziantep (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 14.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Gazişehir Gaziantep (1X2) 37.3 26.2 +11.1
Draw (1X2) 27.6 21.3 +6.3
Istanbul Basaksehir (1X2) 35.1 52.5 -17.4
Over 2.5 goals 56.1 70.4 -14.3
Under 2.5 goals 43.9 29.6 +14.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 43.9% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 29.6%. The difference — about 14.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Gazişehir Gaziantep (1X2) 3.66 3.66 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.51 4.51 0.0
Istanbul Basaksehir (1X2) 1.83 1.83 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.36 1.36 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 3.23 3.23 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Süper Lig
  • Fixture: Gazişehir Gaziantep vs Istanbul Basaksehir
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.3% · Draw 27.6% · Away 35.1%
  • xG (showing): Gazişehir Gaziantep 1.49 — Istanbul Basaksehir 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.93)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 43.9% · Implied: 31.1% · Probability edge: +12.8 pts · Est. EV: +41.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.6% · No 39.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Süper Lig Süper Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Galatasaray 34 24 5 5 77
2 Fenerbahce 34 21 11 2 74
3 Trabzonspor 34 20 9 5 69
4 Besiktas 34 17 9 8 60
5 Istanbul Basaksehir 34 16 9 9 57
6 Goztepe 34 14 13 7 55
7 Samsunspor 34 13 12 9 51
8 Rizespor 34 10 11 13 41
9 Konyaspor 34 10 10 14 40
10 Kocaelispor 34 9 10 15 37
11 Alanyaspor 34 7 16 11 37
12 Gazişehir Gaziantep 34 9 10 15 37
13 Kasimpasa 34 8 11 15 35
14 Genclerbirligi 34 9 7 18 34
15 Eyüpspor 34 8 9 17 33
16 Antalyaspor 34 8 8 18 32
17 Kayserispor 34 6 12 16 30
18 Fatih Karagümrük 34 8 6 20 30
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Galatasaray 34 77 30 +47 77
2 Fenerbahce 34 77 37 +40 74
3 Trabzonspor 34 61 39 +22 69
4 Besiktas 34 59 40 +19 60
5 Istanbul Basaksehir 34 58 35 +23 57
6 Samsunspor 34 46 45 +1 51
7 Rizespor 34 46 52 -6 41
8 Konyaspor 34 43 50 -7 40
9 Gazişehir Gaziantep 34 43 58 -15 37
10 Goztepe 34 42 32 +10 55
11 Alanyaspor 34 41 41 0 37
12 Genclerbirligi 34 36 47 -11 34
13 Eyüpspor 34 33 48 -15 33
14 Kasimpasa 34 33 49 -16 35
15 Antalyaspor 34 33 55 -22 32
16 Fatih Karagümrük 34 31 54 -23 30
17 Kayserispor 34 27 62 -35 30
18 Kocaelispor 34 26 38 -12 37
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Galatasaray 34 68.5 32.7 +35.8 77
2 Fenerbahce 34 65.0 30.1 +34.9 74
3 Besiktas 34 62.6 36.8 +25.8 60
4 Istanbul Basaksehir 34 53.5 42.7 +10.8 57
5 Goztepe 34 46.6 35.8 +10.8 55
6 Trabzonspor 34 50.4 43.9 +6.5 69
7 Samsunspor 34 43.8 40.1 +3.7 51
8 Rizespor 34 45.3 45.5 -0.2 41
9 Kocaelispor 34 30.1 33.2 -3.1 37
10 Konyaspor 34 44.0 47.4 -3.4 40
11 Gazişehir Gaziantep 34 44.4 50.8 -6.4 37
12 Alanyaspor 34 34.6 44.1 -9.5 37
13 Kayserispor 34 37.9 51.7 -13.8 30
14 Kasimpasa 34 30.3 44.5 -14.2 35
15 Fatih Karagümrük 34 33.2 48.0 -14.8 30
16 Genclerbirligi 34 34.9 51.4 -16.5 34
17 Eyüpspor 34 34.4 53.3 -18.9 33
18 Antalyaspor 34 27.8 55.2 -27.4 32