Statistics / Football / Turkey. Süper Lig / Fatih Karagümrük vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.

Fatih Karagümrük vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. Statistics & Analysis

Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük
May 03, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.47
0 0.76
xG Accuracy: 71%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. Gençlerbirliği S.K.
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Süper Lig
  • Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Genclerbirligi
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-03 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 52.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 17.8%
  • xG (showing): Fatih Karagümrük 1.47 — Genclerbirligi 0.76 (total xG ≈ 2.23)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 57.4% · Implied: 46.5% · Probability edge: +10.9 pts · Est. EV: +17.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 42.6% · No 57.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (15.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Best Bet + Reason

The engine’s headline primary is: BTTS No.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

Edges shrink quickly if prices move; always re-check the number on your book.

FAQ

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 17, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Back to Statistics
Süper Lig Süper Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Galatasaray 33 24 5 4 77
2 Fenerbahçe 33 21 10 2 73
3 Trabzonspor 33 20 9 4 69
4 Beşiktaş 34 17 9 8 60
5 Göztepe 33 14 13 6 55
6 Başakşehir 33 15 9 9 54
7 Samsunspor 33 12 12 9 48
8 Rizespor 34 10 11 13 41
9 Konyaspor 33 10 10 13 40
10 Kocaelispor 33 9 10 14 37
11 Alanyaspor 33 7 16 10 37
12 Gaziantep FK 33 9 10 14 37
13 Eyüpspor 33 8 8 17 32
14 Kasımpaşa 33 7 11 15 32
15 Gençlerbirliği S.K. 33 8 7 18 31
16 Antalyaspor 33 7 8 18 29
17 Kayserispor 33 5 12 16 27
18 Fatih Karagümrük 33 7 6 20 27
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Galatasaray 33 77 29 +48 77
2 Fenerbahçe 33 74 34 +40 73
3 Trabzonspor 33 61 36 +25 69
4 Beşiktaş 34 59 40 +19 60
5 Başakşehir 33 56 34 +22 54
6 Rizespor 34 46 52 -6 41
7 Samsunspor 33 43 45 -2 48
8 Göztepe 33 42 29 +13 55
9 Konyaspor 33 42 48 -6 40
10 Gaziantep FK 33 42 56 -14 37
11 Alanyaspor 33 40 39 +1 37
12 Gençlerbirliği S.K. 33 33 47 -14 31
13 Kasımpaşa 33 32 49 -17 32
14 Antalyaspor 33 32 55 -23 29
15 Eyüpspor 33 30 45 -15 32
16 Fatih Karagümrük 33 29 53 -24 27
17 Kocaelispor 33 26 37 -11 37
18 Kayserispor 33 25 61 -36 27
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Galatasaray 33 68.0 32.0 +36.0 77
2 Fenerbahçe 33 63.7 29.5 +34.2 73
3 Beşiktaş 34 60.8 33.9 +26.9 60
4 Göztepe 33 44.4 33.6 +10.8 55
5 Başakşehir 33 51.3 42.1 +9.2 54
6 Trabzonspor 33 49.8 42.2 +7.6 69
7 Samsunspor 33 41.0 36.7 +4.3 48
8 Rizespor 34 42.4 43.7 -1.3 41
9 Kocaelispor 33 29.8 31.9 -2.1 37
10 Konyaspor 33 42.8 46.0 -3.2 40
11 Gaziantep FK 33 43.7 48.6 -4.9 37
12 Alanyaspor 33 33.9 42.4 -8.5 37
13 Kayserispor 33 36.5 50.5 -14.0 27
14 Kasımpaşa 33 28.5 43.2 -14.7 32
15 Fatih Karagümrük 33 31.4 47.2 -15.8 27
16 Gençlerbirliği S.K. 33 33.3 50.8 -17.5 31
17 Eyüpspor 33 33.9 52.0 -18.1 32
18 Antalyaspor 33 26.5 54.9 -28.4 29
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