Budapest Honved vs Vasas Statistics & Analysis

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

• League: NB II
• Fixture: Budapest Honved vs Vasas
• Kickoff: 2026-05-10 17:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
• xG (showing): Budapest Honved 1.45 — Vasas 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
• Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
• Model: 58.9% · Implied: 52.1% · Probability edge: +6.8 pts · Est. EV: +4.2%
• BTTS (model): Yes 58.9% · No 41.1%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Best current value angle on the board — same leg as the “Best +EV” hero when Primary rules are not met: BTTS Yes.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

May 17, 2026 (UTC)