Statistics / Football / Hungary. NB II / Ajka vs Szeged 2011

Ajka vs Szeged 2011 Statistics & Analysis

Ajka Ajka
May 10, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Szeged 2011 Szeged 2011
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ajka Szeged 2011 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 13:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2018196

Closing Odds 2.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Szeged 2011 win · Ajka 0–3 Szeged 2011
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Ajka (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 13.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ajka (1X2) 41.8 34.0 +7.8
Draw (1X2) 25.7 32.1 -6.4
Szeged 2011 (1X2) 32.6 33.9 -1.3
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 36.8 +13.8
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 63.2 -13.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 50.6% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 36.8%. The difference — about 13.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ajka (1X2) 2.66 2.66 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.82 2.82 0.0
Szeged 2011 (1X2) 2.67 2.67 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.51 2.51 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.46 1.46 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NB II
  • Fixture: Ajka vs Szeged 2011
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Ajka 1.45 — Szeged 2011 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 50.6% · Implied: 38.3% · Probability edge: +12.3 pts · Est. EV: +27.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 38.8% · No 61.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
NB II NB II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vasas 30 20 4 6 64
2 Budapest Honved 30 18 5 7 59
3 Kecskeméti TE 30 16 3 11 51
4 Kozarmisleny FC 30 13 9 8 48
5 Mezokovesd-zsory 30 13 7 10 46
6 Csakvar 30 12 10 8 46
7 BVSC 30 12 5 13 41
8 Fehérvár FC 30 10 9 11 39
9 Tiszakecske FC 30 10 9 11 39
10 Szeged 2011 30 9 9 12 36
11 Karcag SE 30 9 8 13 35
12 Ajka 30 10 3 17 33
13 Soroksar 30 8 9 13 33
14 Szentlőrinc SE 30 7 12 11 33
15 Budafoki LC 30 7 8 15 29
16 Bekescsaba 1912 30 6 10 14 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vasas 30 59 26 +33 64
2 Budapest Honved 30 49 26 +23 59
3 Kecskeméti TE 30 49 39 +10 51
4 Csakvar 30 43 37 +6 46
5 Soroksar 30 41 45 -4 33
6 Kozarmisleny FC 30 38 40 -2 48
7 Fehérvár FC 30 37 33 +4 39
8 Mezokovesd-zsory 30 37 34 +3 46
9 Tiszakecske FC 30 37 44 -7 39
10 BVSC 30 36 30 +6 41
11 Szentlőrinc SE 30 35 42 -7 33
12 Budafoki LC 30 33 49 -16 29
13 Szeged 2011 30 29 34 -5 36
14 Karcag SE 30 29 41 -12 35
15 Bekescsaba 1912 30 27 42 -15 28
16 Ajka 30 23 40 -17 33