Statistics / Football / Hungary. NB II / Vasas vs Budafoki LC

Vasas vs Budafoki LC Statistics & Analysis

Vasas Vasas
May 04, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 53%
Budafoki LC Budafoki LC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vasas Vasas ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 17:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1620518

Closing Odds 1.18
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Vasas win · Vasas 3–2 Budafoki LC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Budafoki LC (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Budafoki LC (1X2) by about 24.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Vasas (1X2) 41.8 76.2 -34.4
Draw (1X2) 25.7 15.6 +10.0
Budafoki LC (1X2) 32.6 8.2 +24.4
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 60.9 -10.3
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 39.1 +10.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Budafoki LC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 8.2%. The difference — about 24.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Vasas (1X2) 1.2 1.18 -0.2
Draw (1X2) 6.0 5.75 +0.4
Budafoki LC (1X2) 11.0 11.0 -0.2
Over 2.5 goals 1.53 1.53 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.38 2.38 0.0

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Back to Statistics
NB II NB II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vasas 30 20 4 6 64
2 Budapest Honved 30 18 5 7 59
3 Kecskeméti TE 30 16 3 11 51
4 Kozarmisleny FC 30 13 9 8 48
5 Mezokovesd-zsory 30 13 7 10 46
6 Csakvar 30 12 10 8 46
7 BVSC 30 12 5 13 41
8 Fehérvár FC 30 10 9 11 39
9 Tiszakecske FC 30 10 9 11 39
10 Szeged 2011 30 9 9 12 36
11 Karcag SE 30 9 8 13 35
12 Ajka 30 10 3 17 33
13 Soroksar 30 8 9 13 33
14 Szentlőrinc SE 30 7 12 11 33
15 Budafoki LC 30 7 8 15 29
16 Bekescsaba 1912 30 6 10 14 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vasas 30 59 26 +33 64
2 Budapest Honved 30 49 26 +23 59
3 Kecskeméti TE 30 49 39 +10 51
4 Csakvar 30 43 37 +6 46
5 Soroksar 30 41 45 -4 33
6 Kozarmisleny FC 30 38 40 -2 48
7 Fehérvár FC 30 37 33 +4 39
8 Mezokovesd-zsory 30 37 34 +3 46
9 Tiszakecske FC 30 37 44 -7 39
10 BVSC 30 36 30 +6 41
11 Szentlőrinc SE 30 35 42 -7 33
12 Budafoki LC 30 33 49 -16 29
13 Szeged 2011 30 29 34 -5 36
14 Karcag SE 30 29 41 -12 35
15 Bekescsaba 1912 30 27 42 -15 28
16 Ajka 30 23 40 -17 33