Statistics / Football / Luxembourg. National Division / Progres Niederkorn vs FC Differdange 03

Progres Niederkorn vs FC Differdange 03 Statistics & Analysis

Progres Niederkorn Progres Niederkorn
May 08, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 53%
FC Differdange 03 FC Differdange 03
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Progres Niederkorn FC Differdange 03 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2990273

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result FC Differdange 03 win · Progres Niederkorn 2–3 FC Differdange 03
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Progres Niederkorn (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Progres Niederkorn (1X2) by about 20.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Progres Niederkorn (1X2) 41.8 20.9 +20.9
Draw (1X2) 25.7 25.6 +0.1
FC Differdange 03 (1X2) 32.6 53.5 -20.9
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 50.0 +0.6
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 50.0 -0.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Progres Niederkorn (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.9%. The difference — about 20.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Progres Niederkorn (1X2) 4.38 4.38 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.57 3.57 0.0
FC Differdange 03 (1X2) 1.71 1.71 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.89 1.89 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.89 1.89 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National Division
  • Fixture: Progres Niederkorn vs FC Differdange 03
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Progres Niederkorn 1.45 — FC Differdange 03 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 48.1% · Over 2.5 51.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 59.3% · No 40.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.3% · No 40.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
National Division National Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Atert Bissen 30 20 5 5 65
2 FC Differdange 03 30 19 8 3 65
3 US Mondorf-les-bains 30 19 3 8 60
4 UNA Strassen 30 17 7 6 58
5 F91 Dudelange 30 17 7 6 58
6 AS Jeunesse Esch 30 10 10 10 40
7 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 30 11 7 12 40
8 UN Kaerjeng 97 30 11 5 14 38
9 US Hostert 30 10 6 14 36
10 Victoria Rosport 30 10 5 15 35
11 Progres Niederkorn 30 9 7 14 34
12 Swift Hesperange 30 9 5 16 32
13 Jeunesse Canach 30 9 4 17 31
14 Mamer 30 8 5 17 29
15 Union Titus Petange 30 6 7 17 25
16 Rodange 91 30 6 7 17 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atert Bissen 30 70 27 +43 65
2 FC Differdange 03 30 63 22 +41 65
3 F91 Dudelange 30 59 38 +21 58
4 UNA Strassen 30 57 26 +31 58
5 US Mondorf-les-bains 30 51 24 +27 60
6 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 30 48 50 -2 40
7 Progres Niederkorn 30 44 47 -3 34
8 UN Kaerjeng 97 30 43 48 -5 38
9 AS Jeunesse Esch 30 35 34 +1 40
10 US Hostert 30 35 56 -21 36
11 Victoria Rosport 30 33 50 -17 35
12 Mamer 30 33 59 -26 29
13 Swift Hesperange 30 31 46 -15 32
14 Jeunesse Canach 30 29 44 -15 31
15 Rodange 91 30 28 65 -37 25
16 Union Titus Petange 30 26 49 -23 25