Statistics / Football / Luxembourg. National Division / Mamer vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg

Mamer vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg Statistics & Analysis

Mamer Mamer
May 10, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 53%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Mamer Mamer ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 08:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3034289

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Mamer win · Mamer 3–2 Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Mamer (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Mamer (1X2) by about 19.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Mamer (1X2) 41.8 22.0 +19.8
Draw (1X2) 25.7 23.8 +1.9
Racing FC Union Luxembourg (1X2) 32.6 54.2 -21.6
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 57.3 -6.7
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 42.7 +6.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Mamer (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.0%. The difference — about 19.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Mamer (1X2) 4.21 4.21 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.89 3.89 0.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg (1X2) 1.71 1.71 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.64 1.64 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.2 2.2 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National Division
  • Fixture: Mamer vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Mamer 1.45 — Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.4% · Implied: 43.6% · Probability edge: +5.8 pts · Est. EV: +8.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.1% · No 47.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Mamer & Racing FC Union Luxembourg!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
National Division National Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Atert Bissen 30 20 5 5 65
2 FC Differdange 03 30 19 8 3 65
3 US Mondorf-les-bains 30 19 3 8 60
4 UNA Strassen 30 17 7 6 58
5 F91 Dudelange 30 17 7 6 58
6 AS Jeunesse Esch 30 10 10 10 40
7 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 30 11 7 12 40
8 UN Kaerjeng 97 30 11 5 14 38
9 US Hostert 30 10 6 14 36
10 Victoria Rosport 30 10 5 15 35
11 Progres Niederkorn 30 9 7 14 34
12 Swift Hesperange 30 9 5 16 32
13 Jeunesse Canach 30 9 4 17 31
14 Mamer 30 8 5 17 29
15 Union Titus Petange 30 6 7 17 25
16 Rodange 91 30 6 7 17 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atert Bissen 30 70 27 +43 65
2 FC Differdange 03 30 63 22 +41 65
3 F91 Dudelange 30 59 38 +21 58
4 UNA Strassen 30 57 26 +31 58
5 US Mondorf-les-bains 30 51 24 +27 60
6 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 30 48 50 -2 40
7 Progres Niederkorn 30 44 47 -3 34
8 UN Kaerjeng 97 30 43 48 -5 38
9 AS Jeunesse Esch 30 35 34 +1 40
10 US Hostert 30 35 56 -21 36
11 Victoria Rosport 30 33 50 -17 35
12 Mamer 30 33 59 -26 29
13 Swift Hesperange 30 31 46 -15 32
14 Jeunesse Canach 30 29 44 -15 31
15 Rodange 91 30 28 65 -37 25
16 Union Titus Petange 30 26 49 -23 25